US milk supply picks up after bird flu dip

Production in the 24 major states last month amounted to 8,64 million tons, according to figures from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This represents a 1% increase compared to the same month last year, this is the largest increase since February 2024. Across the US as a whole, an increase of 0,9% is visible in March. The growth is a result of higher animal numbers and a slightly higher production per cow.

In February, a decline was still visible due to the leap year. On a daily basis, production was then 0,9% higher than a year earlier, which is also in line with the increase in March. In January, the increase was 0,6%. For the whole of 2025, the USDA expects an increase of 0,7%, as announced earlier this month.

Californië
At the state level, there are several notable outliers. California production in March was down 2,1% on last year. In February, that was 3,75% in daily production terms, and before that, it was almost 10%. The decline in March is the smallest in six months, which means that the effect of bird flu on milk production is less noticeable.

However, reports of affected dairy farms continue, although at a slower pace. This explains the recovery in milk production. On April 17, authorities in California reported that eight farms had been affected by the H5N1 variant in the past thirty days. This brought the total number of affected farms to 764. A thousand farms have been infected throughout the US so far.

Texas
Also notable is the sharp increase in production in Texas, where production rose by no less than 9,4% last month. The increase has made Texas the third largest dairy state in the US.