The size of the Dutch calf sector is rapidly shrinking. The number of calf slaughters in January and February is considerably lower than a year earlier. The number of slaughters decreased by almost 20% as a result of shrinking livestock. This is causing slaughterhouses considerable headaches, although opinions differ on the future development of the sector. The economic contribution of the calf sector will in any case become considerably smaller.
Although a decrease in the number of calf slaughters was expected, the decline in the number of calf slaughters in recent months has suddenly been very sharp: in January and February, the number of slaughters fell by 19% and 16% respectively to just over 100.000 head in February, according to preliminary data from Statistics Netherlands. In addition to the closure schemes in the Netherlands, the shrinking dairy herd in other European countries and bluetongue also play a role. This puts pressure on the supply of calves, although the closure schemes in the Netherlands ensure that the number of slaughters in our own country is falling faster than in other European countries.
Decline accelerates
The supply of calves has been declining at an increasingly rapid pace since last summer. In the third quarter of 2024, the number of slaughters was 2% below the spring level. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the number of slaughters was already 4% lower than the same period a year earlier. In the first 2 months of 2025, the number of slaughters will be around 18% below the level of a year earlier.
Shrinkage affects cost price
Inquiries with Dutch calf slaughterers show that the market is perceived as tight. A spokesperson for Ekro (part of the VanDrie Group) states that the number of slaughters is decreasing and points to the CBS statistics. The shrinking dairy herd in North-West Europe and the impact of bluetongue are mentioned as causes in particular. Incidentally, VanDrie expects that the supply will 'partially recover' in the long term.
A competing Dutch calf slaughterer, who does not want to be named, indicates that the pressure on the slaughter sector has increased. According to this company, the lower slaughter numbers (and the associated lower occupancy rate) have an impact on the cost price and the Dutch competitive position. It is important to maintain critical mass as a sector, it is indicated. Lower slaughter numbers not only increase the purchase price for slaughter animals, but also the further cost price per kilogram of meat. This spokesperson does not expect a recovery of the supply in the coming 12 months and possibly even a further decline.
Just under 20% of companies close down
According to figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the Netherlands had around 2023 veal farms in 1.500. 211 veal farms registered for the Lbv-plus scheme. These are all companies that fall under the peak load approach. Calf farms that are not peak polluters could not register for the 'regular' Lbv scheme that came into effect in 2023, but they could register for the Lbv for smaller sectors that was open at the end of 2024. Another 54 veal farms registered for this. This brings the total number of companies that have registered for a stoppers scheme to 265. That is almost 18% of the number of Dutch veal farms. Many of the companies that have registered for the Lbv for smaller sectors scheme are currently still in production. This indicates a further reduction in slaughtering in the long term.
According to 2024 information from the veal sector association (SBK), the sector created an economic added value of €1,7 billion and provided employment to 22.000 people. With a significant reduction in the number of slaughters, there is a chance that the economic size of the sector could shrink by a few hundred million euros.
High prices
The beef market has been characterised by high prices for some time now. The prices of nukas, starters, white meat and rose calves are also at historically high levels. For example, the price of newborn calves is currently around €400 per head, depending on the quality. This makes nukas a whopping 120% more expensive than last year at this time. Although the prices for veal calves have fallen somewhat in recent weeks, it is still seen as a limited price correction at the very high level that has now been reached.