FrieslandCampina is flourishing but Paris is still far away

With a profit of €230 million, FrieslandCampina is reliving its past. "The last time we posted profits like this must have been in 2016," says Chief Financial Officer Hans Janssen. Along with Van Karnebeek, he forms a solid and experienced duo at the helm of the dairy cooperative. Their job is to keep things running smoothly and detect market changes early on. And that last task is not underestimated.

The first half of 2025 saw the company build on last year's results, when conditions were certainly not bad, particularly in the bulk markets. Higher prices for basic dairy products continue to drive results. Furthermore, the added-value divisions are flourishing. specialized nutrition en ingredientsVan Karnebeek, who is not too modest, knows the reason for this: "I dare say that we are better at protein than our competitors in the market."

Trade war still hurts
If asked, will FrieslandCampina be significantly affected by potential US trade tariffs? Van Karnebeek is quite clear on that point as well: "The impact for us will be minimal. Only a portion of cheese exports to the US will be affected, but these are relatively small volumes." However, the dairy cooperative is indirectly and significantly affected by President Trump's trade policy. This leads to lower consumer confidence, which is a global issue. This is also true in Indonesia, for example, a key market for FrieslandCampina. Moreover, the weak dollar, due to Trump's unpredictable trade policy, is quite unfavorable for the dairy cooperative. "These risks simply cannot be fully hedged," says Janssen.

For several weeks now, basic dairy prices have been under considerable pressure. Both CEOs hint that this likely extends beyond the usual summer weakness at this time of year. "We expect more headwinds in the second half of this year," says the CEO. He deliberately avoids mentioning this, as it's his job to identify and address changes in the market, even when they're not favorable, as is currently the case.

Incidentally, this isn't the reason FrieslandCampina isn't already paying the pro-forma back payment. This hasn't been happening consistently in recent years. The idea in Amersfoort is that the benefits can only be distributed once the spoils are in. With a guaranteed price of around €55, an early back payment isn't a must for members either.

More members come than go
According to Van Karnebeek, the relatively high milk price is one of the reasons why the decline in milk supply is leveling off. He also mentions that FrieslandCampina is popular with new entrants. Numbers aren't disclosed, but aside from those leaving, there's a positive membership balance again. "We're seeing more members joining than leaving."

The merger with Milcobel is going according to plan, says Van Karnebeek when asked. He emphasizes, however, that these are proposed plans, which still require the final approval of the members of both cooperatives. Getting the deal through the competition authorities without any hiccups is likely to pose a greater hurdle. The Belgian side is suggesting that this will require a huge amount of paperwork to be submitted to the authorities. This will undoubtedly be the case, but FrieslandCampina still believes it is on track to merge in 2026.

Tempering expectations
Van Karnebeek answers evasively whether FrieslandCampina is also interested in Fonterra's Australian branch. "We know the rumors from the international press, but we do not comment on these kinds of questions." The optimistic and down-to-earth CEO is generally very clear on many other issues, but does not comment on alleged far-reaching takeover ambitions. 

Over the past year and a half, he clearly had the market tide on his side. His task is to effectively manage the expected market headwinds. And that naturally starts with tempering overly high expectations, as he certainly did today.