Europe's milk engine is running at full speed

It's not often that production in the largest milk-producing countries skyrockets simultaneously. Usually, the positives and negatives within a member state can be offset. In any case, the higher milk production is an unfortunate coincidence for the market, which has plummeted in recent weeks.

And it's not just in our part of Europe that milk is plentiful. Milking is also booming on the other side of the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The situation is reminiscent of 2022, when European milk production also rose rapidly, only to have the market plummet shortly afterward. We've listed the developments in order of magnitude. 

Germany: plus 2,1 percent
German dairy farmers have perhaps increased production the most. In June, supply was still more than 2% below last year's level. Two months later, an increase of over 2% was visible. Moreover, the growth continued in September. Preliminary figures from AMI show that weekly production is now 5% (!) above last year's level. Like the Netherlands, Germany experienced a dry spring, but in July and August the country was treated to abundant rain, resulting in a significant increase in milk production. The mild bluetongue outbreaks this summer also played a role in this development.

France: up 5,6 percent
French milk supply has been above last year's level since March, but this lead was significantly extended in August to its highest level in ten years. With an increase of over 5%, supply in August exceeded the long-term average for the first time since 2022. As elsewhere in Europe, high milk prices are taking hold. It is notable that the milk price has been under some pressure since the beginning of this year, but with prices just below €50, French dairy farmers are able to achieve high margins. Weekly figures from FranceAgriMer show that the increased production continued in September.

Poland: plus 3,5 percent
Polish milk production showed a decline in the first half of this year, but this has since been reversed. In August, the lead was extended to 3,53% compared to the same month a year earlier. Poland has significantly increased its exports of dairy products within Europe this year. This is one of the causes of the recent price pressure on the European dairy market. Polish dairy farmers have been receiving generous payouts of over €50 per 100 kilos all year, which has boosted production. However, forecasts for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 have been revised downwards.

Netherlands: plus 4,8 percent
The Dutch milk supply continued to increase in August. More milk was produced than in the same month last year. The nutrient content also rose again. The latest figures are striking not only for the higher supply, but also for the fact that the figures for July and August represent a trend break from previous years and are continuing. Normally, the supply would continue to decline from the summer onwards. The fact that this is not happening is due to a disrupted calving pattern caused by bluetongue.

Italy: plus 2,5 percent
Italian milk production shows a surprising trend reversal in August, with a 2,5% increase. This increase is putting pressure on Italian spot milk prices, which have fallen rapidly from almost €70 per 100 kilos to over €50 by early October. In addition to the increase in milk production in Italy, cheap supplies from other European member states such as the Netherlands, France, and Belgium are putting additional pressure on prices.

Ireland: up 6,8 percent
Ireland has been milking vigorously all year, with another record volume in September. High milk prices and favorable growing weather are the main reasons for this. However, a longer-term decline is looming, as it remains uncertain whether the country can continue to rely on the derogation for more generous fertilizer standards. The European Commission is expected to decide before the end of the year whether the derogation for Ireland can be maintained from January 2026. The increase in Irish milk production is having a significant impact on mainland Europe, as the country exports large volumes. Irish milk processors claim to have large stocks, which is inconvenient for them at a time when the market is under severe pressure. Consequently, the Irish are being proactive in lowering the milk price, with prices around €45 per 100 liters.

Milk production is also high in the United Kingdom, with a lead of over 5% compared to last August. This was also the highest level ever.

Belgium: minus 0,53 percent
In June, Belgian milk production was still 8% (!) behind last year. By August, the deficit had narrowed to around 0,5%. The recovery will benefit the Belgian Confederation of the Dairy Industry (BCZ), which recently expressed concern about the shrinking milk supply. The recovery, as in other member states, is being fueled by relatively high milk prices and low feed costs.