New Zealand butter imports plummet

In May, June and July, the Netherlands imported 3.160, 1.918 and 1.565 tonnes of butter (and AMF) from New Zealand respectively, according to trade data (Harmonised System). This meant that import volumes a multiple of last year. At that time, there was still a butter shortage in Europe. This made it attractive to import butter from the other side of the world.

During the summer, it became clear that there was no butter surplus in Europe. In fact, the opposite is true. This explains why import volumes dropped sharply in August and September to 360 and 151 tons, respectively. In September, import volumes fell below last year's level for the first time this year. This is likely to remain the case for the remainder of 2025. Due to the rapidly falling butter price and the market surplus, there is currently no incentive to import New Zealand product.

Supply growth continues
New Zealand's milk supply continues to perform well this season. Production in October was 3.130 tons, a 1,7% increase compared to the same period last year. Due to higher milk solids content, production in kilograms was 2,8%. Production hasn't been this high since 2021. 

At $10 per kilo of solid milk, market leader Fonterra's initial forecast milk price for the 2025/26 season remains very attractive for member dairy farmers. However, Fonterra is expected to lower its forecast soon, given the rapidly declining prices on the Global Dairy Trade. New Zealand's ANZ Bank revised its own forecast this week by 3,5% to $9,65 per kilo of solid milk. Other banks have already made similar adjustments.