Significant decline in Irish milk production

Irish milk production cooled sharply in September. At 797.700 tons, production was only 0,9% higher than a year earlier. This is significantly lower than the 6,47% increase in August and the lowest increase since February. Fat and protein production were slightly higher due to a higher fat content, reaching 68.040 tons (+1,37%).

The autumn weather didn't help matters. Above-average rainfall in September and October saturated the soil, forcing many cows back to the barn earlier and making farms more reliant on concentrates. Grassland growth is also lagging, increasing the risk of a tight roughage supply in 2026.

Cumulative milk production through September rose by 5,71% to 7,59 million tons, thanks to a good spring and summer. Total milk solids production increased by 6,37% to 588.730 tons.

Milk prices down
In September, the Irish milk price fell to €51,86 per 100 kilos, the first month with a year-on-year decline (-10,56%). This is in stark contrast to the EU average price, which rose by 7,66% to €53,41 per 100 kilos. Ireland is leading the way in lowering milk prices. In October, Dairygold, Centenary, and Lakeland, among others, announced further cuts of 3 to 4 cents per liter. This brings milk prices close to—or even below—the average national cost price of 42 cents per liter. Milk prices are expected to fall further to below €40 per 100 kilos. 

For many dairy farmers, declining margins mean a significant deterioration in operating results, especially compared to the more stable first half of the year. According to the IFAC (Irish Farm Accounts Co-operative Society), current margins could lead to farm profitability falling below cost in 2026. Advisors advise dairy farmers to prepare in advance for potential liquidity problems in the new year.

View on derogation
Negotiations regarding the extension of the manure derogation in Ireland are progressing more smoothly. The European Commission intends to grant Ireland a further derogation from the EU Nitrates Directive, allowing dairy farmers to continue applying more animal manure than the standard limit of 170 kilograms of nitrogen per hectare. This was announced by the Irish Minister for Agriculture, Martin Heydon. communicated to Parliament. The Commission's proposal still needs to be approved by the Nitrates Committee, in which all EU Member States are represented.

According to Heydon, Brussels will attach additional conditions to a new derogation period. Ireland must comply with the European Habitats Directive, among other things, which means that 583 nature reserves will have to be reassessed. Because this is a major exercise, the Commission proposes extending the derogation by three years, giving Ireland sufficient time to complete this assessment.