Phosphate trade heads for unusually quiet finale

It has happened before that phosphate prices drop in December, as recently as 2022. However, the circumstances were different then, and it remained reasonably busy. 

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There are certainly reasons why buyers might be put off. Prices are very high. It costs a fortune to buy a substantial amount of phosphate rights. So, you need a well-stocked wallet for that. Never before have prices been this high. 
Another factor could be that milk prices have plummeted and farmers have become wary of large expenditures. Confidence in the dairy market is also not very strong. 

On the other hand, those who remain short on manure production rights may have a good reason to buy more. Depending on their business situation, many dairy farmers already have a manure surplus, and that seems only to be increasing with the tightening of regulations. Having sufficient rights is therefore crucial. "Phosphate rights are largely tax-deductible," says a trader. "A manure fine is not." 

Not everyone has the money to buy more rights. Leasing is an option, though there's a significant reduction of 30%. Moreover, leasing is only valid for one year. 

The purchase price is an advantage—relatively speaking, that is, as leasing prices have also risen significantly this year. However, the number of freely marketable lease rights is quite limited. There are more buyers than sellers. A one-year lease also doesn't solve anything for future years. A structural shortage is not being addressed.

Whatever motivates livestock farmers, the fact remains that phosphate traders currently have an unusually large amount of time on their hands. That could change, but the prospect of them having to work hard until the very last hours this year seems unlikely.