Surplus outweighs shortages on the milk market

The average Dutch milk price (excluding premiums) for 2025 was €52,27 per 100 kilos. This means dairy farmers can look back on a profitable year, although milk prices did drop significantly after the summer. The average DCA spot milk quotation in the Netherlands over the past year was €43,77 per 100 kilos.

This reveals a historically large gap of €8,50. For almost the entire year, the spot milk price was below the payout price, which is an atypical pattern.

A drop of over 90%
Spot milk prices are often below payout prices in the first half of a calendar year and above them in the second half, fluctuating with the seasonal pattern of milk production. Due to the disrupted calving pattern caused by bluetongue, the production peak in 2025 was later than usual. Furthermore, milk production increased significantly last year.

This combination put significant pressure on the spot market. It pushed the Dutch spot milk price to a new low of €4,50 per 100 kilos. Overall, the DCA spot milk price fell by a whopping 91,3% between week 1 and week 52. The price drop has never been this sharp in recent years.

Surplus weighs more heavily in the long term
Even over the past five years, the average spot milk price was below the average payout price. From 2021 through 2025, the spot milk price averaged €45,31 per 100 kilos, while the average payout price during that period was €47,28. During this period, there were three years when the spot milk price exceeded the payout price: 2021, 2022, and 2024, years when the milk market was characterized by tightness and rising prices. 

This can be seen as a signal that the market is slowly turning around, because after the abolition of the milk quota in 2015, it has never happened before that the spot milk price over an entire year has been higher than the average payout price.