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WUR: Long-term milk price above 50 euros
The milk market is facing a tight supply while demand for dairy continues to grow. This is causing upward price pressure, despite an expected short-term dip. Read more about the long-term outlook for the milk price.
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The expert panel 'Long-term forecasts for the dairy farming sector' estimates the average milk price for the next ten years at €51,50 per 100 kilos of milk. That is €2,50 higher than last year's estimate. The forecast is based on the EU Agricultural Outlook, supplemented by an assessment of the Dutch market situation.
The increase is linked to a structurally tight supply. Milk production in Europe is shifting partly to Eastern Europe, while in Southern Europe, farms are closing down without a successor. At the same time, demand for dairy continues to grow. Factors such as inflation also play a role in price developments.
Difference between conventional and organic is shrinking
The price for organic milk is estimated at €61,50 per 100 kilos. The price difference compared to conventional milk is expected to decrease to an average of approximately €10 per 100 kilos, partly due to increasing competition from other concepts.
On the cost side, feed costs remain largely stable, although prices for calf milk powder are rising. Livestock prices are at a higher level and are expected to remain strong due to continued scarcity. Manure disposal costs remain uncertain and highly dependent on region and policy, particularly due to the phasing out of derogation.