The fertilizer market is waiting for a new chapter. Despite much optimism, little has been bought. The French market is usually ahead of the curve, but people have to wait a little longer before buying. This is because of the snowfall. The situation in the Netherlands is different at the moment. The good weather offers opportunities to spread the first fertilizer.
According to insiders, the price for KAS is currently around €24 per 100 kilos. Compared to the price in November 2017 (€21,95), this is a considerable increase. This price is expected to continue to rise in the near future. Ko Francke, deputy director of CZAV: "The market is volatile. That is why it is important that farmers purchase more widely." He cites higher transport and mining costs as the causes of the rising price.
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Fertilizer prices are on the rise again.
Nitrogen is a price pusher
Agrifirm Plant has not yet noticed a large demand, although the first purchases have already been made. The company sees that the price for potassium is quite stable to slightly increasing. Nitrogen is the main price pusher. The average nitrogen price for 2017 increased by 10% compared to 2016. This brings to a halt a price decline that continued for 5 years.
China
The main reason for the turnaround is the fact that China, the main exporter, has exported 11 million tons less nitrogen. The country has actually become an importer. This has to do with stricter environmental regulations, which means that coal-fired factories produce less. China wants to export as little as possible in the coming season in order to have enough nitrogen in its own country.
The gas price also influences fertilizer prices. The situation in Groningen (regarding gas extraction) is currently of influence. This is because Minister Eric Wiebes (Economic Affairs and Climate) has asked the industry to use less Dutch gas. Yara and OCI must therefore produce more on foreign gas. The influence of this is probably not noticeable in the short term.