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Inside Manure

Will the increase in the KAS price level off?

4 December 2018 - Anne Jan Doorn

After a months-long rise in the KAS price, it is now leveling off somewhat. The fact that the price flattens out somewhat at the beginning of the year is an annually recurring pattern.

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Although it is difficult to obtain objective information about the development of fertilizer prices, the increase in the KAS price is now expected to level off. Depending on the supplier, the product costs between €23 and €24 per 100 kilos (in bulk). This means the price has risen slightly since September, while the price in June was still €20 per 100 kilos.

The price for KAS usually drops slightly from the beginning of the new year until mid-June. The oil price is also falling sharply, making it difficult for fertilizer producers to justify a further increase. The price of Kali (60%) remains stable at a high level: €31 to €32 per 100 kilos (in bulk). That price is higher than at the beginning of 2018, given that the Kali price at the time was around €30 per 100 kilos.

Less use in livestock farming
How is it possible that the price rose earlier and faster this season than in other years? Less fertilizer was used, especially in livestock farming, which was partly due to the drought. Traders say that this is true, but that demand from arable farmers was high. The wet spring of 2018 made it difficult to apply organic fertilizer to the land, which is why the switch to artificial fertilizer was made more often.

The trend that the KAS price starts to decline at the beginning of the new year returns every year.

In addition, the price of KAS is influenced by many factors from outside the Netherlands, such as decreased urea production in China. The fact that the price has risen sharply could also be due to the cleaning of various factories.

More stock available
However, it is true that there is still stock, especially in livestock farming, which is mainly because less has been used. Traders notice that it is better to buy in spreads and advise to do so. In addition, the dependence on bulk fertilizers is becoming less great, because more special fertilizers are being used.

In addition, low water levels mean that wholesaler Triferto has problems with the transport of fertilizers. There is a risk that certain products will become more expensive (due to additional costs) or will even no longer be available. 

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