News Nitrogen Policy
Mesdag: share of nitrogen in agriculture much lower
Dutch agriculture is responsible for 25% for the precipitation of nitrogen in Natura 2000 areas and not for 46%. At 42%, traffic and shipping account for a much larger share of precipitation on nature reserves than the Remkes Committee assumes.
This is the conclusion of the study carried out by a research team into nitrogen data from RIVM, commissioned by the Mesdag Dairy Fund. It was presented on Thursday afternoon at a very well-attended press conference at the Binnenhof in The Hague.
The agricultural sector has been looking forward to the calculations for a long time, because farmers and organizations had long had doubts about the method chosen by RIVM to calculate nitrogen. Jan-Cees Vogelaar, chairman of the Mesdag Dairy Fund, did not mince words at the presentation of the research in The Hague. “The farmers are right, there is a downright drunken nitrogen policy.”
Main conclusions Mesdag in brief:
- Nitrogen emissions from agriculture not 45% but 25%
- Traffic and shipping have a much larger share: 42%
- Emissions industry from 1% to 6%
- Nitrogen data is dated (2017), livestock has fallen sharply in 2019
Above the figures calculated by the Remkes Committee and therefore also by the cabinet. According to Mesdag, this concerns nitrogen throughout the Netherlands. Under the calculation of the Mesdag Dairy Fund, specifically for nitrogen on Natura2000 areas.
According to the Mesdag study, the nitrogen share for agriculture is lower, because the Remkes Committee has included nitrogen precipitation for the whole of the Netherlands, including, for example, also on agricultural land. Formally, this does not count for nature policy, said Geesje Rotgers, coordinator of the research team. "Remkes did not look at where the nitrogen precipitation ended up in nature reserves, but throughout the Netherlands." According to Rotgers, RIVM confirms this conclusion.
Policy calculations not clear
Rotgers emphasizes that not one of the proposals announced by the cabinet has been publicly calculated. "They are there, but no one is allowed to see them anymore." Calculations by the research team, however, show that the nature gain of, for example, driving 100 km per hour on the highway only yields 0,07% nature benefit.
The team also calculated the emissions of an average dairy farm of 100 cows. Based on an emission of 1,4 million grams of ammonia per gram, this provides a benefit of 0,03% for nature close by. The effect on nitrogen precipitation is also small for a dairy farm close to a Natura 2000 area.
Question marks about peak loaders
Rotgers has serious doubts about the government's intention to clean up 'peak tax collectors'. "That's strange, because the effect on nature is very small. Because these peak loaders are not all close to nature." In any case, remediation of peak tax burdens is difficult, because relatively small industrial companies with less than 10.000 kilos of nitrogen emissions from nature areas are not in the picture. "While 10.000 kilos does represent a dairy farm with around 750 cows. You don't find that much in the Netherlands."
According to the Mesdag Dairy Fund, traffic has a much larger share in nitrogen emissions. Shipping in particular, because many shipping routes pass and through nature reserves, have a large share of nitrogen precipitation in Natura 2000 areas. Mesdag therefore arrives at a calculation of 42% for traffic, including shipping.
Many measures for little deposition
The conclusions of the research team are therefore that buying out livestock farms is very expensive and has relatively little effect. "A lot of measures are taken for a little bit of gain in deposition," Rotgers said. She reiterates that if everyone and everything leaves the Netherlands, the nitrogen standards will still not be met in a quarter of the Natura 2000 areas. This is mainly due to the arrival of nitrogen from abroad, for example the German Ruhr area.
Vogelaar emphasizes in the presentation the complexity of the RIVM calculation model and the nitrogen methods. According to him, these are so complex that the Remkes Committee 'didn't get it either'. Rotgers also contributed. "The construction projects in the Netherlands would not have had to come to a standstill if the cabinet had understood its calculation models."
Dated data
Vogelaar mentioned as an example that the nitrogen data that Mesdag received from RIVM dates from 2017. The Remkes Committee also used this data. Vogelaar emphasizes that the reality today looks very different.
“In December 2019, there were 75.000 fewer dairy cows, approximately 4,5%, and 240.000 fewer young stock, approximately 18%, than in the data used by the Remkes Committee. Also, due to recent research, the emission of ammonia from manure application on grassland is 10% lower than in the figures of the RIVM. And the cows are more efficient with feed than previously assumed, which also results in a 10% lower ammonia emission than in 2017," Vogelaar quotes from research by Wageningen UR. “These figures were not included in our study. So actually a fifth of these results still needs to be removed.”
Credibility
He also discussed the credibility of the Mesdag Dairy Fund's research. This has been regularly discussed in the general media in recent days. “We have had very well-founded and careful research carried out for years, the truth of which has never been questioned.” Vogelaar emphasizes that the research team was able to work particularly well with the employees of RIVM.
He also communicated the findings of the research team to a delegation from the RIVM and the Ministry of Agriculture on Wednesday, including together with Agricultural Collective Chairman Aalt Dijkhuizen. “We have been very transparent about that.”
Relevant questions
According to researcher Richard Zijlstra, the research by Mesdag Dairy Fund raises many questions that need to be answered in the public discussion and in politics. He asks questions such as: Can the agricultural sector now be regarded as the most dominant and largest cause of the nitrogen problem in nature reserves? And has the Remkes Committee painted a full picture of the situation? "Just tell me", he put a rhetorical question to the audience.
Subsequently, a whole discussion ensued with the media about the calculation method and the figures flew back and forth, which indicates how difficult it is to properly interpret the nitrogen data.
Legal Tug of War
The calculations by the research team of the Mesdag Dairy Fund took just over a month and a half. After a long legal marriage, Mesdag received the complete nitrogen data set from RIVM in the first week of January of this year. Although the organization indicated that it would not share information about the progress of the investigation to the outside world, it soon became clear that the Agricultural Collective wanted to wait for the results before making hard nitrogen agreements with the cabinet.
The expected different insights were also a major reason for Farmers Defense Force to organize the third farmers' protest in The Hague yesterday (Wednesday). Whether the results of the Mesdag will also have an effect in the cabinet and the House of Representatives is yet to be seen. The CDA already indicated yesterday that they should definitely be included in the nitrogen debate.
GroenLinks leader Jesse Klaver indicated on the radio yesterday that he would study the outcome of the Mesdag carefully, but immediately said that he would not tamper with the credibility of scientific institutes such as RIVM.
Eric the Thrush
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