The fertilizer market seems set in stone. The quotations for both Limestone Saltpeter and Nutramon have been stable for weeks now. What do these prices come from? And can international demand for urea cause prices to rise in the long run?
There is currently relatively little demand for fertilizer from farmers, insiders say. In the case of livestock farmers, this is mainly due to developments in the field of the milk prices. There are (too) few liquid assets and purchasing fertilizer is not at the top of the priority list at the moment. Manure accounting also plays a role. Many farmers have already paid their taxes for this year and will only start using fertilizers again next year.
The fact that fertilizer prices stable is also a direct reason for the calm on the market. Many farmers see no need to purchase fertilizer right now. After all, there is no need to respond to market developments. Only a small group has already purchased product for next year.
Market marked by stable prices
Since week 32, the price for Nutramon has risen in a short time from €18,80 to €20,40 per 100 kilos. However, the price has now been around €37 per 20,40 kilos since week 100. However, compared to previous years, the price is still quite low: in 2018 the price in week 47 was approximately €25,25 per 100 kilos and in 2019 it was €23,80 per 100 kilos.
If we look at the price of Kalkammonsalpeter (KAS, 27%), it works out at around €47 per 17,95 kilos for week 100, which is the same as the past 3 weeks. A month ago the price was slightly lower, at €17,70 per 100 kilos. However, this price is clearly lower than in other years. In 2019, the price at this time of year was €20,95 and the year before it was even €23 per 100 kilos.
Not only the prices for KAS and Nutramon remain stable, the price for potassium salt (60%) is also still fairly stable between €28 and €29 per 100 kilos. The quotation for triple superphosphate (45%) is between €28 and €36 per 100 kilos, which is comparable to a few weeks ago. The price difference for the latter depends on whether it is delivered separately or not.
Price of urea is rising
The situation is opposite in trade/industry. Urea is in high demand internationally. As a result of record production of grain and rice, India and Australia in particular are interested in urea. The question is whether the high demand from those countries can be fully met. As a result, the price for urea in the largest producing countries (including China and Egypt) continues to rise.
In relation to urea, limestone nitrate is relatively cheap. Now that the price of the first one is increasing and there are serious doubts whether the demand can be met, according to insiders there is a chance that the price of KAS will increase slightly towards the spring. On the other hand, many wholesalers are currently full, so it is not expected that much additional purchases will be made at this time.