Opinions

It's summer. Many people are heading to France or Italy – countries where you can enjoy sun, wine, lavender, and la dolce vita. But what if, in addition to holiday fun, we also took policy inspiration from the south? Especially when it comes to agriculture, these two countries have something important to say. And we, as agricultural nations, should listen to that.

For almost a year, the Labour government was well on its way to rebuilding trust in British politics. In recent days, however, a veritable soap opera has unfolded in the House of Commons. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and the pound are the biggest victims.

Dutch purchasing managers suddenly became a lot more optimistic in June. The Nevi index, which measures the mood among Nevi members, rose from 49,0 in May to 51,2 in June. That is quite a considerable increase for a month. The explanation also sounded quite positive; there was talk of a broad improvement in confidence. Given the tense geopolitical situation and the uncertainty surrounding the American import duties, the increased confidence is quite remarkable.

The sharp dollar decline works out quite well for Dutch households. All sorts of articles can become a lot cheaper. Expressed in euros, the price of American articles decreases and Asian export companies know their way to Europe.

The Americans and the Chinese have reached a trade agreement along the lines of what they discussed in Geneva a few weeks ago. Many details are still unknown. Perhaps that is because there are few details. It normally takes years for countries to agree on trade agreements. Not a few months. The fact that an agreement has been announced probably indicates the pressure on both countries to de-escalate. The Chinese economy is under pressure. The real estate crisis is not getting any deeper, but is also not close to being resolved. Domestic demand is weak and deflation is looming. The last thing China needs is a sharp drop in exports to the US.

It happens to me more and more often. As I stir my coffee and read my newspaper, I think: if ChatGPT and other artificial intelligence is the future, what do I actually add?

I have rarely heard a central bank president say so often that he does not know everything as precisely as during the latest press conference of Fed boss Jay Powell. While President Trump has been demanding rate cuts for a long time, the Fed is waiting for what is to come. And Powell does not know what that will be. He referred to other economic forecasters and noted that they do not come to very different conclusions than the Fed.

Israeli military actions in Iran have caused fear in financial markets, but certainly not panic. The attacks targeted nuclear facilities, not oil installations. If tensions were to rise and military actions were to escalate on both sides, it could be a different story.

The Swiss central bank's interest rate decision has taken on added significance now that currency policy is under American scrutiny. A key lesson from the Alpine country is that complexity is a better export weapon than a weak currency.

The trade relations debates between countries continue and remain chaotic. There is certainly a possibility that things will escalate, explode and cause major economic damage. More likely, it seems to me, is that it will all fizzle out, albeit a loud fizzle and with occasional afterburners. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made it clear that 145% tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US and 125% tariffs on goods going the other way will stop all trade and that this is not the intention. The Americans believe that there is no level playing field in international trade and they have a point there. They want better terms for themselves, not deglobalization.

The victory of conservative Karol Nawrocki in the Polish presidential election has left the zloty remarkably cold. However, it could well be that the result will have a long-term effect on the currency world.

When Trump threatened to stoke the trade fires earlier this year, things weren’t looking good for major Latin American countries. Now, US trade policy is actually a tailwind, while the Mexican peso and Brazilian real are benefiting from high interest rates.