Opinions

The volume of Dutch goods exports was a substantial 7,1% higher in December than a year earlier. For 2025 as a whole, a 3,3% increase is projected for goods export growth, following a -1,8% increase in 2024. According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the strong figure in December was mainly due to machinery and petroleum products.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is receiving support from his cabinet members following the Epstein scandal surrounding a former ambassador, but the political storm hasn't subsided yet. The prospect of falling inflation also bodes ill for the pound.

The first three graphs in this commentary cover three continents, are based on different variables, but all three show the same picture. There seems to be a kind of explosion of activity around New Year's Eve.

With Kevin Warsh as the Fed chairman-designate, Donald Trump is making a move that immediately gives the dollar some breathing room. Markets are reacting with relief, but the question remains how independent the central bank will truly remain. Will Warsh soon chart his own course as vigorously as Jerome "Jay" Powell is now?

The Dutch dairy farming sector is facing turbulent times. For many farmers, the past year and a half has felt almost unrealistically good. Milk and meat prices reached levels not seen in a long time. There was room to breathe, to address overdue maintenance, and to invest in the business. That optimism was justified, but also temporary, as it turns out.

Our economy grew by 0,5% in the fourth quarter compared to the third. For the year as a whole, preliminary figures show growth of 1,9%. In 2024, it was 1,1%. This 1,9% is excellent and is likely even slightly higher than our economy's long-term potential. In December, the Dutch Central Bank (DNB) estimated growth at 1,7%. It is also clearly better than our neighboring countries. In Germany, growth last year was 0,3%, in Italy 0,6%, in France 0,8%, and in Belgium 1,0%. Spain, at 2,7%, grew significantly faster than ours.

The dairy market has once again demonstrated in recent years how non-linear its operations are. What began as a period of scarcity and high prices culminated in a pronounced milk tsunami in 2025: a rapid and widespread increase in milk supply that collided with a cooling demand. The sharp drop in prices in the second half of the year was not an isolated incident, but the logical consequence of this structural imbalance.

After rising for several months, consumer confidence in Belgium fell again in January. It dropped from -21 in December to -23. For fun, I've also included Belgian consumer confidence in the following chart. Our Belgian friends actually became more optimistic in January.

On paper, China is running exactly as planned, and you won't notice it in the renminbi's exchange rate. But behind the respectable 5% growth figure lies an economy that relies increasingly heavily on exports and less and less on domestic consumers.

The value of Chinese exports rose 6,6% in December compared to a year earlier, reaching a new record of $357,8 billion in a single month. For 2025 as a whole, the value of Chinese exports rose 5,5%. Due to Trump's import tariffs, exports to the US fell sharply in 2025. In December, Chinese exports to the US were 30,0% lower than a year earlier. Despite this, total Chinese exports continued to grow unabated.

The lawsuit against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has put a sharp spotlight on the dollar's downside risk. Another lawsuit has even made the risk slightly higher than currency markets are currently pricing in.