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Opinions Kempe van der Heide

Cost price must be basis for contract price

11 December 2020 - Boerenbusiness - 10 comments

The first contours of the 2021 potato season are emerging. The table potato market is still looking good, at least in terms of volume. The market for chips potatoes, on the other hand, is much less hopeful. Is there anything that can be done about it?

When the coronavirus hit in late February/early March, measures were put in place around the world to slow down the further spread of the virus. This created a huge run on table potatoes and the market for chips potatoes collapsed. And now, three quarters of a year later, the situation is still the same. As a result, there is little or no interest from the industry in free potatoes and the price has been at the level of €0,03 per kilo since March. Although the table market is doing well, prices have also been lowered here (due to the low price level of the chips potatoes).

Too much product?
What can be done? The answer is simple: if you feel that the price of the product in the market is too low, then there is too much of this product available. For the 2020 season, it was too late for a large part of the growers to switch and limit the acreage. That is why we are still dealing with an oversupply of potatoes, with the known consequences. For 2021 we (as growers) can still switch.

We can't control the weather, but we can control the potato area

Kempe van der Heide

The Producers Organization for Consumer Potatoes (POC) has shown with calculations that an area reduction of 5% is required in the EU-15 to bring the market back into balance. The NAV, VTA and the NEPG have happily supported this call. What the final harvest will be in 2021, of course, strongly depends on the weather conditions during the growing season and the final yield per hectare. We can't control the weather, but we can control the potato area. That is the most important switching option. This sharp contraction can bring the market back into equilibrium in one fell swoop and the price on the free market can reach an acceptable level.

Risks are placed too much with the grower
The industry will of course also switch. The first signs are that both contract volume and contract price are falling. No one could have foreseen this pandemic and its consequences. The POC believes that the risks are now very much placed with the growers. The contraction volume contraction is of course not very good for potato growers in the current situation, but the contraction is understandable.

However, the POC cannot understand the drop in contract prices. The costs for growers continue to rise due to, among other things, the disappearance of a number of chemical agents. For growers who were already in the slump before the 2019 harvest and who are fully participating again for the 2020 harvest, there cannot be another loss-making year. After all, the customers also benefit from the fact that we can continue to grow potatoes.

We get further with a conversation than smoking each other

POC

Price reduction is wrong signal
If the industry wants a shift in the relationship between early potatoes and long storage, a simple price reduction is the wrong signal. The POC thinks we can get through a conversation more than we smoke each other out. To guarantee a healthy and future-proof sector, both cultivation and processing must be profitable. In that case, the cost price of the growers must be the starting point in the potato contracts. That has always been the case, of course, although this current situation makes it all the more necessary.

* Written by Keimpe van der Heide, chairman of the Producers Organization for Consumer Potatoes (POC).

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Comments
10 comments
Subscriber
frog 11 December 2020
This is in response to it Boerenbusiness article:
[url = https: // www.boerenbusiness.nl/column/10890357/kostprijs-moet-basis-voor-contractprijs-zijn]Cost price must be basis for contract price[/url]
Very simple, just grow freely, on average a much higher return as a contract, right?
Student 11 December 2020
The cost price must be the basis for the grower's decisions, Mr. van der Heide. So if you think the industry is setting the contract price too low, don't deliver. That is very simple. If no one delivers, it will go up on its own. If the supply is below cost for years, growers will automatically fall over. You would expect the POC to understand this. Flexibility is a difficult word for many contract growers.
Subscriber
Skirt 11 December 2020
Farmers like to work for free .... see the potato contracts.
Subscriber
plodder 12 December 2020
how long has he been sitting in that chair? and what have they achieved. have they not been able to find a young fresh practicing farmer in the past 100 years
13 December 2020
In the entire agricultural sector, the risks and thus the failure costs are borne by the farmer. That is also the reason that suppliers and customers get rich with such a small margin on paper. When you can dump the negative margin of, for example, -80% with the farmer, you always earn money as a buyer or supplier of the farmer.

Chain collaboration is proposed as a solution for a better revenue model. When you look at the contracts of chain cooperation, nothing changes in the fact that the risks are transferred to the farmer. Decrease in certainty is then often cited as a motivation to switch to chain collaboration.
Very important for buyers when they have received a certain volume in advance on paper, because then they have the price mechanism in hand/off.
Sunday morning 13 December 2020
"It is very important for buyers when they have received a certain volume in advance on paper, because then they have control over the price mechanism." Fluff of course. Customers always only record part of their demand. For the part that they have not recorded, there is always the market risk. That can be positive or negative. Due to the collapsing chips market due to the failure of the catering industry worldwide, even the price risk for the contracts can be very disappointing. But in any case: if you are sure that the farmer by definition never earns anything and that the middlemen by definition become filthy rich, the question is what your plans are. For in 1 year, 2 years, 5 years. Still a farmer?
Glass 13 December 2020
wrote:
In the entire agricultural sector, the risks and thus the failure costs are borne by the farmer. That is also the reason that suppliers and customers get rich with such a small margin on paper. When you can dump the negative margin of, for example, -80% with the farmer, you always earn money as a buyer or supplier of the farmer.

Chain collaboration is proposed as a solution for a better revenue model. When you look at the contracts of chain cooperation, nothing changes in the fact that the risks are transferred to the farmer. Decrease in certainty is then often cited as a motivation to switch to chain collaboration.
Very important for buyers when they have received a certain volume in advance on paper, because then they have the price mechanism in hand/off.
That is also the reason why more and more market parties are fixing volume on a contract basis or are starting to produce part of their required volume themselves. It gives you a grip on the pricing.
V 13 December 2020
There are several methods to arrive at a price (pricing). Supply-demand and marketing are examples of this.

Intermediaries also influence the price. What matters is for which party the intermediaries want to add value, and can they actually add value. Do they want to add value for the farmer, by stipulating a higher price and guaranteeing sales, or do they want to add value for the final seller (supermarket) by ensuring a constant supply of a high-quality product, for the lowest possible price.

By adding an incentive by paying surcharges on products, it is possible to control. Benefits that a farmer receives by supplying a consistently high quality and ensuring a constant and predictable supply. This ensures that supply and demand can be better matched and supply can be used more efficiently. And the need to raise market prices diminishes.
Guus 13 December 2020
Mass is checkout only applies to the periphery. There is little or no cash register for the farmer due to too much mass.

This situation has arisen because farmers do not only allow themselves to be financed by banks but also by suppliers and buyers. In the past you had the pig cycle if the production volume was too high, the selling price fell below a certain point, whereby a number of farmers dropped out. Because suppliers and customers now have a big finger in the pie, they determine when the plug is pulled. The tipping point is therefore now at a much higher production volume and therefore a lower selling price (in relation to the critical selling price) because the income/interest of the farmer no longer counts. They call it the pig cycle 2.0 now I believe.
Ym 13 December 2020
Farmers make the mistake of seeing the other links in the chain as value-adding links. These links just ripple along on the waves of the market and when something goes wrong or becomes difficult, they throw the farmer overboard to keep their own feet dry.
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