War leads to geopolitical food and energy policy

On February 24, Claudia Hulshof outlined the connection between oil, gas, food and money as the foundation for Putin's daring war against NATO countries. It is now clear that Putin is probably not a cool frog, but rather a blinded dictator without remorse who dreams of a great empire of Slavic peoples under Russian leadership. This is evident from his threat to use nuclear weapons, now that he appears unable to quickly take the cities of Kharkov and Kiev to oust the government of Ukraine. Whether he's suicidal or a great strategist, we'll probably learn in the coming days.

It is now clear how the European NATO countries react. They are more united than ever since the Maastricht Treaty (1992) that the EU member states were more united economically, but administratively more than drifted towards each other. On Sunday 27 February, Germany decided to invest the unprecedented amount of €100 billion in defense. The EU countries offered arms and support to Ukraine and are again realizing that under Putin there is a hard and dangerous eastern border to the union. A more dangerous border perhaps than the Cold War era, when old men in the Kremlin guarded the balance of power with the West.

The world by the balls
It is also clear that Putin - provided he knows how to behave tactically smart - has not only the EU, but possibly the whole world by the balls. Anyone who tries to write down the image of his work as a rational construct is tempted to see it as an almost brilliantly executed strategy. After 2014 - his annexation of Crimea - Putin built an internal economy, which he could use to cover his internal food consumption again after the collapse of the old Soviet production under Boris Yeltsin. in the big cash crops is he king.

If he can win Ukraine, he will produce 80% of the world market for sunflower oil, 25% for wheat and 20% for maize. War takes Ukraine's share out of the market, while Putin will only earn more because of the price increases that will occur. In such a scenario, the world finances its threat of war. It is not without reason that China has already opened the door wide for Russian grain and is looking less closely at the high phytosanitary requirements that it places on it under normal circumstances.

World will fund Putin's war
The EU is phasing out fossil and nuclear energy and still has no sustainable energy supply. Putin meanwhile made us dependent on his gas and oil. His country is a major food exporter in the world and within its sphere of influence has a view of the fertile Chernozem Soils, the well-known 'black earth'. That is land that Putin's eastern neighbor Xi Jinping, the president of China, is eager to feed his fast-growing people because his country depends on imports. Xi also needs Russian gas and oil to provide cleaner energy than with its current dirty coal plants.

China and the EU need Russia. Other areas in the world cannot supply the energy that is lost because - with a view to sustainable energy - too little has been done to explore new fossil extraction options. Energy prices will therefore remain high in the coming years. Although one Western energy company after another is currently saying goodbye to Russia, the world still needs Putin's fossil energy. In the foreseeable future, the symbolic partitions will somehow be restored.

Putin seems to have prepared his war perfectly and made an alliance with China to be able to play his game extra strong. However, he misjudged the resistance of the Ukrainians. That could ruin his seemingly clever game. The NATO countries are now on his tail. The Russians themselves may also turn against him if they see dead soldiers keep coming home in bags. Because Putin did not see that the Ukrainians and even Russians see him not as a liberator, but as an occupier of his own people, he has ended the war, according to Yuval Harari already lost. Even if another long guerrilla follows.

Bread in Egypt and the climate issue
De NRC signals unrest in Egypt because bread could quickly become more expensive and could lead to a North African Arab Spring, a concept that stands for food riot and revolution. In 2011, the Egyptian president fell. What are the consequences of a 'cancelled' Russia 11 years later for Africa's largest grain importer?

The climate issue continues to exist, as it IPCC made it penetratingly clear yesterday† According to former general Tom Middendorp and the Red Cross, climate change is de facto a military security issue. deep down Putin's war can be interpreted as a malicious food and energy war, based on climate change in combination with his hunger for power. The world must prepare for climate change and adaptation to not only apricots but also geopolitical and military reasons. Clean energy is and will remain - certainly for the time being - scarce.

We must start living differently and more economically and use food and energy less wastefully. We discover that we want to be less dependent on foreign leaders for food and energy. Now that everything is getting more expensive, it's easier. High energy and food prices make sustainability easier. As world leaders who want to become more sustainable, this moment of serious threat to world peace is the moment. They have to organize it and want to look beyond the war. Putin's war for Ukraine could be the factor connecting the world to avoid the climate wars predicted by Middendorp.

Green Deal, Africa and new alliances
Under the Green Deal, the EU is phasing out food production. As a result, less will become available for the global market, where low-wage countries are important customers worldwide. High energy prices limit the production of fertilizers, which can help a significant number of those countries become food sovereigns. This is especially true for the large continent of Africa. If it gets less food from elsewhere and it doesn't get its own production going, migrations of even larger numbers of people to the EU will start than what Italy, Spain and France are already afraid of.

Contrary to common knowledge, however, Africa has significant, but still untapped, export potential for food. Africa can take over the role of the EU and serve itself better, so that the old Europe and the rejuvenated prosperous Africa come into a better relationship. To get that going, outside help is needed. The EU has a great interest in providing that assistance. The moment we really start working on this, China and Israel will be our competitors in helping Africa develop into a food exporter. Both countries are active in Africa with serious projects.

Food supply is a priority again
What will China do if Russia falls into a war that turns out very differently for Putin than he imagined? President Xi Jinping will not want to miss the food and energy from Eurasia. Is the EU going to partner with the Chinese for a world war to avoid the world's food barn? And what does that mean for China's interest in Africa and our relationship to that great continent? We need to think about those questions now. Putin and the climate are on the agenda. President Ursula von der Leyen announced yesterday that food supply is again a priority for the EU due to the war over Ukraine.

In the coming period, we will examine these questions in collaboration with agricultural journalist Lourens Gengler. We do this on the basis of analyzes of food production and available volumes in the world. We try to gain insight into the possible worlds that will arise as a result of Putin's war. The question of sustainable energy will also be discussed later. 

Dick Veerman is editor-in-chief of Foodlog.nl

This article is part of the content collaboration between Boerenbusiness en foodlog.