Calculation tool for peak loaders steers towards the desired result

This week the special Aerius calculator became available, which indicates peak loaders. Watched it right away. Some findings in this piece.

The government has set up the Aerius calculator in such a way that it focuses on the desired outcomes. In recent years, scientists have already come up with a series of different starting points to designate peak loaders (largest emission, largest deposition load, highest deposition peak, maximum target range). A comparison showed that the chosen starting points determined the outcomes to a greater extent. The Ministry therefore had a lot of scope to first determine the desired outcomes and then to select the starting points that would lead to those outcomes. The ministerial choices and their consequences at a glance.  

Disadvantage for companies with little or no land
The ministry has chosen to only count the nitrogen released from stables. And not the nitrogen that is released from the fertilization of the fields. The 'normal' version of Aerius calculates approximately the same amount of nitrogen from the stable as from the fertilized plots for soil-based farms. By not counting nitrogen from fertilization in this special calculator, soil-based companies have an advantage. And companies with little or no land are at a disadvantage.  

Initially, a different definition for peak load was used. It always concerned companies at a short distance from nature reserves, roughly a maximum of one to two kilometres. This time the ministry opted for a much wider distance limit, of no less than 25 kilometers. Almost all livestock farms in the Netherlands have a nitrogen-sensitive nature reserve within this distance. This large distance ensures that large companies, at a greater distance from nature reserves, can still be regarded as peak loaders.

Small businesses not safe from calculator
Most striking is the choice for a 'deposition load' of at least 2.500 mol/year on overloaded nitrogen-sensitive nature. This is equivalent to 35 kilograms of nitrogen per year. An emission of 35 kilos is achieved by a herd of 50 sheep, a group with 7 horses, a stable with three or four cows. Small businesses are therefore not automatically safe from the peak load calculator.

Which companies are most likely to be designated as peak loaders? These are the companies with the most hectares of nitrogen-sensitive nature within a radius of 25 kilometers. In other words: farmers who have a large nature reserve in the region (this is many hectares). The Veluwe is the most eye-catching. Take a company that causes a minimum deposition of 0,3 mol/ha on an area of ​​10.000 hectares. Due to the many hectares of nature, this farm comes out in the calculator at 3.000 mol/ha, and is therefore a 'peak loader'.

No security of entered data
What you put into the calculation model determines the outcome. This is also the case with this peak load calculator. Clearly political choices have been incorporated into this calculation tool. The ministry designed this calculator in such a way that certain groups of farmers are more likely to be designated as peak loaders: farmers near large nature reserves and farmers with little or no land. This has little to do with steering on 'the conservation status of nature'. All the more with selective remediation of livestock farming.

Finally, the security of the Aerius calculations. I saw concerned messages from livestock farmers, who are afraid that third parties can watch their calculations. They have a valid point. I have often been amazed at how easily you can open Aerius printouts from others, and view the details entered. There's no security.

Ghost Rotgers

Investigative journalist in the agricultural sector

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