Chinese exports grow unhindered despite US

The value of Chinese exports rose 6,6% in December compared to a year earlier, reaching a new record of $357,8 billion in a single month. For 2025 as a whole, the value of Chinese exports rose 5,5%. Due to Trump's import tariffs, exports to the US fell sharply in 2025. In December, Chinese exports to the US were 30,0% lower than a year earlier. Despite this, total Chinese exports continued to grow unabated.

I suspect that many Chinese goods are still finding their way to the US, albeit via a detour. China exported 11,1% more to ASEAN countries in December than a year earlier. But there is certainly some diversification as well. The EU was pleased to receive 11,6% more Chinese goods. Should we be happy about that?

China even exported 21,8% more to Africa than a year earlier. I can't see exactly what kind of goods that refers to. One sector that is increasingly exporting from China is the automotive sector. Until 2020, China exported approximately half a million passenger cars per year. Car production (and export) has been a spearhead of Chinese policy in recent years, with spectacular success. Four years later, China exports almost seven million passenger cars. The global passenger car market is approximately 75 million. We are gradually seeing more Chinese cars on our roads, but in countries outside Europe, this is undoubtedly happening much faster. It is inevitable that German car manufacturers are rapidly losing market share in these markets.

Incidentally, I believe the continued growth of Chinese exports is primarily a reflection of the country's industrial overcapacity. This process will put some downward pressure on inflation worldwide, including here. The aforementioned Chinese figures are nominal, meaning they represent volume plus price changes.

Not only are Chinese exports growing well, but so are ours. The volume of our goods exports was 4,7% higher in November than in November 2024. We primarily exported more machinery and transport equipment.

The value of agricultural exports was €137,5 billion in 2025 and was thus 8,4% higher than in 2024. This increase was largely due to price increases. According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), we earned approximately €43 billion from the export of Dutch-made agricultural products. That's approximately 4% of GDP, certainly not insignificant.

Beef price increase accelerates again
Statistics Netherlands (CBS) confirmed earlier this week that our inflation rate in December was 2,8% (November 2,9%) and for the whole of 2025 at 3,3%. This is the same percentage as in 2024. Statistics Netherlands also published all the underlying details this week. According to Statistics Netherlands, the slight decrease in inflation in December was mainly due to the price of accommodation in bungalow parks. Accommodation in bungalow parks was 4,5% cheaper in December than a year earlier, compared to a slight decrease of 0,3% in November. However, the weight of bungalow parks, campsites, and the like in the inflation basket is only 0,8%, so I think the inflation-moderating effect of the cost of accommodation in bungalow parks is not that bad.

It's better to drink tea (prices in December were up 1,0% year-on-year) than coffee (+20,9%) and eat fish than beef (+28,9%). Milk was considerably cheaper than a year earlier (-8,4%), but eggs were much more expensive (+9,1%). Car insurance premiums continue to rise sharply: +12,6% year-on-year and +2,2% compared to November. White goods are rapidly becoming cheaper. Refrigerators and freezers were 8,3% cheaper than in December 2024, and dishwashers and dryers were even 10,0% cheaper.

Prices for labor-intensive services continue to rise rapidly. Take hairdressing rates, for example. A haircut cost 5,0% more in December than in December 2024. For 2025 as a whole, prices for men's and children's hairdressers rose 5,9% on balance. In 2023 and 2024, these figures were also 8,5% and 9,0%, respectively.

The AWVN reports that collective labor agreement negotiations are proving very difficult. In a press release, this employers' organization states that the average annual wage increase in new collective labor agreements in 2025 will be 3,9%. In 2024, it was 5,3%. The 3,9% increase in 2025 far exceeds productivity growth and is incompatible with 2% inflation. The AWVN further states that a record number of negotiations on new collective labor agreements have stalled in 2025. Employers attribute this to the strong coordination among unions on a central wage demand, which is also very high (FNV 7%, CNV 3,5-6%). The unions' rigid stance makes it impossible to consider sector-specific and company circumstances. This makes customized solutions impossible, which, according to the AWVN, is a major shortcoming. This is, of course, a result of the tight labor market.

Beige Book paints a stronger US economy
The US economy is doing quite well. Before each interest rate meeting, the Fed publishes the so-called Beige Book. This is a kind of anecdotal description of the American economy, based on conversations the twelve regional Federal Reserve banks have with various parties in their respective districts. In a large majority of the districts, growth is picking up, while inflation remains remarkably subdued. However, there is a dichotomy. People with higher incomes are increasing their consumer spending at a robust pace. But those with smaller budgets are taking it easier and paying closer attention to prices. The latter means that producers cannot, or cannot fully, pass on import duties to consumers.

US inflation remained unchanged at 2,7% in December. This is lower than in the Netherlands. This is quite remarkable, as higher inflation in the US was expected this year due to the import tariffs. The Fed meets again on January 28th. It looks like the interest rate will remain unchanged then, although the lower-than-expected inflation could give the Fed an argument for lowering it anyway.

Closing
Global trade growth has accelerated against expectations throughout 2025. This is reflected in both the Chinese and Dutch figures.

Our inflation fell slightly in December, but is still well above the eurozone average. US inflation is slightly lower than ours and was stable in December. The latter was a welcome development. This could be a reason for the Fed to lower the interest rate towards the end of the month, but that's not very likely. A pause is the most likely scenario, given statements from various board members. And there's a lot to be said for that, although President Trump disagrees.

The unions' inflexible stance is causing a record number of collective bargaining agreements (CBA) negotiations to stall, according to the AWVN. Employers are advocating for wage increases to be moderated. However, the labor market is tight, and the unions are exploiting this.

Hans de Jong

Han de Jong is a former chief economist at ABN Amro and now a resident economist at BNR Nieuwsradio, among others. His comments can also be found on Crystalcleareconomics.nl

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