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Opinions Jaap Uenk

Calm before the storm on the fertilizer market?

6 February 2023 - Jaap Uenk - 13 comments

Can the manure market absorb additional millions of tonnes of cattle slurry in the short term? The new fertilizer rules from the 7th action program and the derogation decision have not yet been adopted. But with the introduction on March 1, 2023, it is clear that livestock farmers with the lower nitrogen standards can quickly fertilize a lot less. The fertilizer placement capacity will decrease annually up to and including 2026. As a result, more fertilizer is coming onto the market. Keeping less livestock is not something a livestock farmer will do anytime soon.

Based on the letter of 250 January from Minister of Agriculture Piet Adema, the reduced derogation regime will apply to derogation farms of 750.000 kg, which are located in the designated 'polluted areas' (approximately 20 hectares of agricultural land). The nitrogen standard on these farms will drop more rapidly to 170 kg nitrogen per hectare in 2026. No more derogation in specific areas and no more manure at all on buffer strips along ditches, increasing the loss of fertilization space.

About 92% of the national nitrogen placement capacity of nitrogen is used (CBS, 2020). There is not much leftover space left. The usage space for nitrogen is already fully utilized in the livestock farming areas in the north, east, center and south of our country. Fertilization space will become available on farmland that becomes vacant at livestock farmers who are stopping. But this sales space will become available less quickly than is necessary for the extra manure supply. There is still some sales space for cattle manure in the arable farming regions. 

More cattle manure for arable farmers
Intermediaries have always managed to find a good destination for extra manure sales. This will be more difficult this year, because the fertilization season is about to start. The manure stores are filled and the stored manure is the first to be used for spring fertilization in arable farming. How much cattle slurry is still needed later in the year and can be stored depends - in addition to the weather - also on the current agreements between intermediaries and manure users.

Cattle slurry is popular with arable farmers. This type of fertilizer provides the most organic matter, nitrogen and potassium per hectare. Arable farmers save the most on fertilizer by using cattle slurry. More cattle manure use by arable farmers pushes the sale of pig manure to manure processing. The result is that the manure market is under pressure, resulting in higher manure disposal costs for livestock farmers.   

Industrial biogas plants
For pig manure, the fulfillment of the target for two billion m³ of green gas in 2030 can become an important (future) sales channel. The already planned industrial biogas projects have an attractive scale to properly process the digestate into end products for which there is a demand at home and abroad. The time at which the first manure can be delivered to these biogas plants will be later than the need for it in practice. Also - if it is recognized - the production and market development of Renure fertilizers will take some time.

The manure policy has always been based on the introduction of feasible, effective and affordable measures with sufficient support. With the new fertilizer rules as of March 1, 2023, the government is stepping down from this path, under pressure from Brussels. I have not yet seen a thorough analysis of the consequences of the new manure rules for livestock farmers and the manure market. If the sales options for manure turn out to be insufficient with a rapidly increasing manure supply, an uncertain manure market will arise. The current stable fertilizer market can therefore quickly turn into a chaotic market with unforeseen consequences

Jaap Uenk

Jaap Uenk is the owner of consultancy Mestem and has more than 40 years of experience in various positions in the Dutch fertilizer sector.

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13 comments
Subscriber
farmer/pig farmer 6 February 2023
This is in response to it Boerenbusiness article:
[url = https: // www.boerenbusiness.nl/column/10902790/stilte-voor-de-storm-op-de-mestmarkt]Silence before the storm on the manure market?[/url]
I am surprised to read that Mr Uenk (with 40 years of experience) writes that arable farmers prefer to receive cattle slurry instead of pig slurry.
With the supply of slurry, the org. dust is less important, for which an arable farmer looks at solid manure or green manure.
Furthermore, nitrogen is the limiting factor for many arable farmers and not phosphate. So the low phosphate content of cattle slurry is much less of an advantage.
But the most important advantage of pig slurry is the much faster availability of all minerals, especially nitrogen. In pig slurry, the nitrogen is already effective after a week, and with spring application until about mid-August. For cattle slurry, this is until October. On top of that, the lower operating coefficient means that pig slurry is much more suitable as a replacement for fertilizer.
Last year a trial was carried out at a large arable farmer, 3 plots of potatoes with cattle slurry and 3 plots with pig slurry. No discussion this year, all pig slurry.
But yeah. I have 43 years of experience with slurry and arable farming.
Subscriber
mix 6 February 2023
farmer/pig farmer wrote:
This is in response to it Boerenbusiness article:
[url = https: // www.boerenbusiness.nl/column/10902790/stilte-voor-de-storm-op-de-mestmarkt]Silence before the storm on the manure market?[/url]
I am surprised to read that Mr Uenk (with 40 years of experience) writes that arable farmers prefer to receive cattle slurry instead of pig slurry.
With the supply of slurry, the org. dust is less important, for which an arable farmer looks at solid manure or green manure.
Furthermore, nitrogen is the limiting factor for many arable farmers and not phosphate. So the low phosphate content of cattle slurry is much less of an advantage.
But the most important advantage of pig slurry is the much faster availability of all minerals, especially nitrogen. In pig slurry, the nitrogen is already effective after a week, and with spring application until about mid-August. For cattle slurry, this is until October. On top of that, the lower operating coefficient means that pig slurry is much more suitable as a replacement for fertilizer.
Last year a trial was carried out at a large arable farmer, 3 plots of potatoes with cattle slurry and 3 plots with pig slurry. No discussion this year, all pig slurry.
But yeah. I have 43 years of experience with slurry and arable farming.
pork + beef is not that bad...
Subscriber
frog 6 February 2023
farmer/pig farmer wrote:
This is in response to it Boerenbusiness article:
[url = https: // www.boerenbusiness.nl/column/10902790/stilte-voor-de-storm-op-de-mestmarkt]Silence before the storm on the manure market?[/url]
I am surprised to read that Mr Uenk (with 40 years of experience) writes that arable farmers prefer to receive cattle slurry instead of pig slurry.
With the supply of slurry, the org. dust is less important, for which an arable farmer looks at solid manure or green manure.
Furthermore, nitrogen is the limiting factor for many arable farmers and not phosphate. So the low phosphate content of cattle slurry is much less of an advantage.
But the most important advantage of pig slurry is the much faster availability of all minerals, especially nitrogen. In pig slurry, the nitrogen is already effective after a week, and with spring application until about mid-August. For cattle slurry, this is until October. On top of that, the lower operating coefficient means that pig slurry is much more suitable as a replacement for fertilizer.
Last year a trial was carried out at a large arable farmer, 3 plots of potatoes with cattle slurry and 3 plots with pig slurry. No discussion this year, all pig slurry.
But yeah. I have 43 years of experience with slurry and arable farming.
In terms of effect, I agree 100% with this, the only disadvantage of pig manure can be that the (clay) soil becomes greasy, especially difficult in wet autumn years.
Subscriber
Skirt 6 February 2023
cattle manure is the 2nd or 3rd option.
Subscriber
juun 6 February 2023
frog wrote:
farmer/pig farmer wrote:
This is in response to it Boerenbusiness article:
[url = https: // www.boerenbusiness.nl/column/10902790/stilte-voor-de-storm-op-de-mestmarkt]Silence before the storm on the manure market?[/url]
I am surprised to read that Mr Uenk (with 40 years of experience) writes that arable farmers prefer to receive cattle slurry instead of pig slurry.
With the supply of slurry, the org. dust is less important, for which an arable farmer looks at solid manure or green manure.
Furthermore, nitrogen is the limiting factor for many arable farmers and not phosphate. So the low phosphate content of cattle slurry is much less of an advantage.
But the most important advantage of pig slurry is the much faster availability of all minerals, especially nitrogen. In pig slurry, the nitrogen is already effective after a week, and with spring application until about mid-August. For cattle slurry, this is until October. On top of that, the lower operating coefficient means that pig slurry is much more suitable as a replacement for fertilizer.
Last year a trial was carried out at a large arable farmer, 3 plots of potatoes with cattle slurry and 3 plots with pig slurry. No discussion this year, all pig slurry.
But yeah. I have 43 years of experience with slurry and arable farming.
In terms of effect, I agree 100% with this, the only disadvantage of pig manure can be that the (clay) soil becomes greasy, especially difficult in wet autumn years.
and if you grow seed potatoes for overseas export, you get ugly potatoes. in addition, the high content of sodium in pig slurry is bad for clay soil. If I have to choose between cattle or pigs, do me cattle, I don't want that pig mess. then just a little more fertilizer which is also not very expensive anymore. To last year.
50 years of experience in arable farming 10 February 2023
no more pigs , far too many hunted crops that are not sustainable at all and remain in storage . in some places that fertilize with pig manure, water is already under the heap after 1,5 months after storing potatoes....
for quality and slow growth and long fertilization, cattle is by far no. 1. pigs comes in 4/5 place
Subscriber
crow 10 February 2023
cattle manure for the potatoes and pig manure for the grain.
Subscriber
seagull 10 February 2023
cattle manure for potatoes and you have no more natural dieback around mid-September
Subscriber
CM 10 February 2023
No problems with it, several years of experience
Subscriber
time bomb 10 February 2023
Have done it for years, no problems, and best potatoes. If they are dead at the beginning of September, you will not get a top yield from the storage potatoes. Potatoes, provided they are still green, will grow by another 700 kg/ha in September.
Subscriber
Drent 10 February 2023
time bomb wrote:
Have done it for years, no problems, and best potatoes. If they are dead at the beginning of September, you will not get a top yield from the storage potatoes. Potatoes, provided they are still green, will grow by another 700 kg/ha in September.
but how do you keep them green in September? I think we should fertilize more, but regulations prevent that.
Subscriber
time bomb 11 February 2023
Definitely don't plant too early
Subscriber
Agria 2 11 February 2023
if you use pig manure in a modest amount you will not be bothered by greasy soil and I want to spray my potatoes to death the first week of September and have an underwater weight of at least 375. I can't do that with cattle manure.
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