Postponement of the phasing out of the derogation is necessary

In the manure debate last week, Minister of Agriculture Femke Wiersma said that she will comply with the agreements from the derogation order, even if consultation on this in Brussels does not yield any results. The consequences could be serious. Where should the extra manure go in the coming two years? This is particularly the case for derogation companies in the provinces of Friesland, Overijssel, Gelderland and Utrecht. The pressure on the manure market is already high this year, mainly due to bad weather.

Up to and including this year, the derogation has only been reduced by 20 kg of nitrogen per hectare. Over the next two years, the use of manure on derogation farms will be reduced in two steps by 40 kg at 230 kg derogation and 60 kg of nitrogen per hectare at 250 kg derogation. Manure that cannot be used on the farm itself largely ends up on the manure market as additional supply. Overviews from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and the Netherlands Centre for Manure Valorisation (NCM) show that the sale of additional manure is becoming problematic, especially for farms in the provinces of Friesland, Overijssel, Gelderland and Utrecht (see table).

Shortage of nitrogen placement space from animal manure due to loss of derogation
(In million kg nitrogen from animal manure)

¹ Note: "Development of nitrogen balance up to 2030 per province", NCM, June 2024
² "Animal manure and minerals: production, transport and use by region" 2022, CBS Statline

The derogation companies in the four provinces together have a share of 63% in the national loss of fertilization space. The remaining placement space for manure in 2022 will change into a shortage of placement space in 2026. This is also the case nationally. In 2022 there was still a full derogation of 250 kg and 230 kg respectively. Every 4,5 kg loss of nitrogen placement space corresponds to the sales potential of one ton of cattle manure.

Solutions only in the long term
Due to companies that are ceasing operations with land, more sales space will become available in the long term. Companies that are ceasing operations will first need their land themselves to empty the manure cellars. I do not consider additional manure processing for surplus manure for which permits are required to be feasible for 2025 and 2026. Manure processing into a renourishable fertilizer will reduce the supply of manure on the manure market, but this option has yet to get off the ground. More manure nitrogen or manure can then be used on one's own farm within the nitrogen usage standards.

It is still unknown how quickly and by how much the manure and mineral production will decrease due to companies ceasing operations, lowering the manure excretion ceilings and skimming off in the trade in production rights. A new manure policy with, among other things, steering on targets and a possible grassland standard for soil-relatedness, will not immediately change the situation on the manure market.

Postponement necessary
In short, the manure market may look very different in the long term. But not so quickly that this will compensate for the large loss of manure placement space of the derogation in 2025 and 2026. It seems to me that the 'extra manure' resulting from the phasing out of the derogation will for the time being be best used on the derogation farms themselves. Some postponement in the phasing out of the derogation is necessary for that.

Jaap Uenk

Jaap Uenk is the owner of consultancy Mestem and has more than 40 years of experience in various positions in the Dutch fertilizer sector.

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