Enough manure for every processor is no guarantee

More manure processing and export is a must. If only to be less dependent on the distribution market in bad (spring) weather. Livestock farmers have noticed that this year. Investing in manure processing is something you do for the long term and not for the current manure problem. You may not be able to imagine it now, but manure processors do not have long-term certainty about sufficient manure supply in an uncertain manure market. 

It is annoying for livestock farmers, but the loss of fertilization space offers manure processors more certainty about manure supply. In concrete terms, the phasing out of the derogation in 2025 will result in approximately 4 million tonnes of additional supply of liquid manure from dairy farms. Without a new derogation, the same amount of manure will be added to the manure market in 2026. The designation of nutrient-polluted areas (NV areas) and buffer strips also result in less fertilization space and more manure supply from other companies. On the other hand, companies that are ceasing to operate with land will again offer fertilization space in the region for those that remain.

Less manure production
Manure production is also decreasing. The main cause is the European Commission's requirement that our livestock may produce a maximum of 440 million kilos of nitrogen and 135 million kilos of phosphate. To reach that level, the pain is divided across the sectors. Within one year, manure production should already decrease by 3,5 million tons of dairy manure, 1,5 million tons of pig manure, 150.000 tons of poultry manure and 450.000 tons of other manure. Manure production that disappears will no longer be available to manure processors.

Grassland standard
In a new manure policy, the introduction of a grassland standard as a policy measure for a circular, soil-based milk production is still under investigation. If a grassland standard is introduced, there will be hardly any cattle manure available for the manure market and manure processors in the long term.

Innovations
With the approval of Brussels, an as yet unknown number of livestock farmers and manure intermediaries will invest in the production and use of RENURE (artificial fertilizer substitute). This will be done by livestock farmers, possibly in combination with barn adjustments and mono-manure fermentation (reduction of emissions and sustainable energy). With RENURE, more manure is used on the farm itself and less manure needs to be removed. Any removal of a remaining farm surplus will then probably end up on the manure market as a solid thick fraction.

Higher processing obligation
In order to stimulate manure processing and export, a higher processing obligation has been proposed. More pig manure will then be processed and possibly also cattle manure. Poultry manure is already almost completely processed. The processing capacity of existing processors will continue to be better utilized with a higher processing obligation. Manure processors lose manure supply as a result of pig farmers ceasing operations. However, fewer replacement processing agreements (VVOs) will then be available to fulfill the processing obligation of cattle farmers with a phosphate surplus.

Energy transition
In the energy sector, there is also an increasing demand for manure. Manure is the main raw material for the large-scale production of green gas (blending obligation to natural gas) and bio-LNG for the transport sector via biogas. After the fermentation process, the digestate is usually processed in a similar way to manure.

In the short term, the supply of manure on the manure market is still greater than the capacity of sales channels. How this market relationship and the price formation will develop in the coming years in an undoubtedly dynamic manure market, is uncertain. Enough manure for every manure processor in the long term does not seem to me to be guaranteed in advance.  

Jaap Uenk

Jaap Uenk is the owner of consultancy Mestem and has more than 40 years of experience in various positions in the Dutch fertilizer sector.

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