Will the manure market close soon?

Over the next two years, the space available for fertilization will decrease much faster than the decline in manure production. This will create major bottlenecks for livestock farmers and the manure market. Minister of Agriculture Femke Wiersma is therefore acting very wisely by slightly slowing the decline in the space available for placing animal manure where water quality is good.

Between 2024 and 2026, the capacity for placing animal manure will decrease by almost 60 million kilos of nitrogen (from 338 to 280 million kilos of nitrogen). This will then decrease by only 7 million kilos of nitrogen until 2035. These figures come from the Impact Analysis by the consultancy firm Schuttelaar & Partners. This firm investigated the effects of the bill "Land-based and responsible manure disposal" on the manure market.

The decline in livestock numbers is expected to be more gradual, with a target date of 2035. This process may accelerate, but certainly not as rapidly as the decline in manure placement capacity over two years.

Delivery ban
Schuttelaar disregards the effects on long-distance manure distribution in his analysis. However, the bill's consequences are significant for livestock farmers in the Achterhoek, Veluwe, Twente, and Salland regions, as well as those further south. Much of the manure from these farmers will no longer be able to be delivered to arable farmers in the Northern Netherlands if the bill is incorporated into the Fertilizers Act. Much of the manure is transported over distances of more than 100 kilometers and crosses the manure-producing regions of Central, South, and North. The bill aims to prohibit this.

Ten years ago, nearly 1,5 million tons of liquid manure were transported long distances to the Veenkoloniën and Oldambt regions alone. Tens of thousands of loads of manure have been replacing millions of kilos of artificial fertilizer for years. The actual amount of manure is easily determined using the loading and unloading locations on the registered Animal Manure Transport Certificates (rVDM). Schuttelaar did not investigate this.

It now strongly appears that the manure market is being deliberately used as a tool to reduce livestock numbers, starting in the socially responsible agricultural areas of Gelderland and Overijssel. The days of a feasible and affordable manure policy are apparently behind us.

Locked
The manure market should not be allowed to serve as a sanitation agent. Nor will entrepreneurs in the manure market. When manure sales become too uncertain and the risks too great, the manure market will become locked out of the market for more manure. The cause is not the unsustainable situation in the manure market, but the failure to achieve a balanced balance over time between the manure supply on the market and the size of the sales capacity.

Perspective needed
Desired and promising initiatives for increased manure processing (and anaerobic digestion) and export, as well as Renure, are doomed to fail if a better outlook for the manure market doesn't emerge in the short term. The period until these initiatives can become operational must be bridged reliably and confidently. Long-distance manure distribution, as a reliable and proven sales channel, is a vital link. Don't restrict it.

Jaap Uenk

Jaap Uenk is the owner of consultancy Mestem and has more than 40 years of experience in various positions in the Dutch fertilizer sector.

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