How our policymakers are faltering in energy transition

In recent years, the specific climate and energy knowledge of our politicians has been disappointing. As a result, a policy was announced one time only to be withdrawn just as easily later. Sophie Hermans, our new VVD climate minister, is also an example of this.

It was recently her turn to be 'grilled' by members of the House of Representatives during a hearing in which the new ministers of the Schoof cabinet were questioned. During the question period, the question was, among other things, how the VVD member views climate change. A rather remarkable response followed: she responded that the then prevailing warm summer week proved that climate change was taking place.

Still investing in new nuclear power plants
A comment in the same category as that of our previous climate minister Rob Jetten, who told Joost Eerdmans in parliament that he did not know how to heat a house with nuclear energy. And therefore did not see why we had to invest in nuclear energy. Only to decide, at the end of his reign, to invest in new nuclear power stations.

Let's go back to Minister Hermans' comment, where she confuses the concepts of climate and weather - as often happens. It is commonplace these days to blame every weather event, such as a flood or storm damage, on climate change. Those hot days? Climate change. That storm? Climate change. That flood? Climate change. But weather and climate are really two different things.

Always outliers up and down
Climate is the average weather over a longer period of time. As the climate changes, the average weather changes. There will always be outliers, up and down. The daily fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, air pressure and so on are what we call weather. So while they are closely related, weather and climate are not the same. Climate is what you expect. Weather is what really happens.

But why do politicians and policymakers keep saying that this or that disaster is caused by climate change? What they actually want to convey is a covert advertising message that encourages you to care about climate change and therefore support efforts to decarbonize the economy.

Experts certainly believe that global climate change will lead to more frequent extreme weather events, with disastrous consequences. Therefore, reducing CO2 emissions should certainly play an important role in tackling the problem of man-made climate change. Although such policies also come with enormous trade-offs that impact human well-being and progress. But this is not the only policy that can help humanity cope with damaging weather changes.

Technological innovations to limit risks
Economic growth and technological innovation have always enabled humans to adapt to extreme weather conditions. Kilmaat scientist Bjorn Lomborg has calculated that the chance of someone dying from climate-related risks such as floods, droughts, storms, forest fires and extreme temperatures has fallen by more than 1920% since 99. Scientific research is increasingly able to tell us how climate change affects the risk of extreme weather events. But unfortunately it cannot tell us how best to deal with this.

If only it were true, if we only look at the vacillating Dutch energy transition policy of the past 10 years. If our administrators had first thought carefully and calculated, they would have come to the conclusion that we should have invested in nuclear energy and grid expansion, they would not have closed coal-fired power stations, they would not have gradually replaced Groningen natural gas with North Sea gas, and they would have long since implemented a national insulation program. electric driving is not subsidized, and biomass and hydrogen are ignored.

That policy would certainly have reduced more CO2 and would not have put our prosperity and purchasing power at risk as it does now. We'll just have to wait and see what kind of wandering policy awaits us next. The first signs are not very positive.

Kasper Walter

Kasper Walet is a former board member of the agricultural futures market. He has now been working under the name Maycroft for years as an independent adviser on energy and climate to governments and companies from all over the world.

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