Where are the limits to growth?

Articles regularly appear in the newspaper about the availability of rare minerals and the geopolitical position of Europe in this regard. The fear is apparently that on a global level we are playing a game of Risk and as a loser we will get a lack of mobile phones and other high tech. Agriculture and thus food production may have problems sooner, because phosphate mines also run out at some point.

Discussion about the finiteness of raw materials reminds the older reader of the study Limits to Growth, better known as the (first) report of the Club of Rome. That was a bestseller in 1972. Certainly in the Netherlands, where it appeared as the 500th paperback in the Aula series and 900.000 copies were sold. The Club of Rome was a group of industrialists and scientists who were concerned about population growth and lagging development in 'the third world'. They commissioned a research group at MIT (Boston), led by Dennis Meadows, to model the development of the world.

Developments are happening faster than you think
That model came from system dynamics, which means that you map out the relationship between activities and the speeds at which activities and cohesion (such as feedback mechanisms) develop, and then simulate many computer runs. Important activities (variables) in Limits to Growth are the growth of the world population, food production, industrial production, environmental pollution and the depletion of raw materials. In the calculations exponential growth (explained with the Persian legend of the chessboard and the rice grains that double per square) played an important role. Developments often go faster than you think.

In the 60s, the Western world had just entered a period of unprecedented prosperity growth. But there was also growing concern about environmental pollution: from poison affairs to astronauts reporting on a small vulnerable planet. Against that background, the report hit like a bomb. Tables indicating that the proven stocks of gold (11 years), mercury (13 years) and, for example, tin (17 years) set the tone, even though the authors indicated that the stocks could undoubtedly be increased with further research. The environmental pollution was illustrated by the extent to which DDT was also found in higher animal species. Even CO2 emissions and the climate have already been given a paragraph. The many computer printouts in graphic form did the rest.

Uncontrollable decline in world population
Whatever stuck, was the first conclusion of the report: if we continue like this, around 2070 there will be an uncontrollable decline in population and production capacity. The world population will already peak in 2030 and the available food per capita in 2020. Less attention was paid to the other 2 conclusions: the growth trends can be reversed so that sustainable stability is achieved. The sooner we start doing that, the more likely it will be successful.

Of course, the report was also immediately criticized, which turned out to be partly justified. This is how innovation works wonders. When something becomes scarce, alternatives arise or people adjust their wishes. 'Peak food' does not seem to be the case for a long time and that is a good thing, because the peak of the world population is still about 50 years away according to the latest insights. And the authors should be happy that such a report is partly self-defeating, because it makes things interesting: the environment has become an important aspect of international and national policy.

Making demands on ourselves for the future
Numerous reports on sustainable living environment and climate, as well as legislation, were subsequently published. With the aim of imposing requirements on ourselves in the future about the society we want, so that the necessary innovation takes place. Because there may not be immediate limits to growth, but there are limits to the earth system.

Krijn J. Poppe

Krijn Poppe worked for almost 40 years as an economist at LEI and Wageningen UR and now holds a number of advisory and management positions. For Boerenbusiness he dives into his bookcase and discusses current developments on the basis of studies that have become classic.

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