The history of the future of our food

There is much to be said about the functioning of our food system. So much so that the United Nations is organizing a high-level Food Summit on it in September. There is a discussion about food security for the world population in times of climate change and what we should do about it. It is clear that more needs to be produced. But should that also be done here or with gene editing or should we increase production in Africa and India? Or eat more plant-based?

Opinions will differ and I predict that they can be divided into 3 groups. I do this in imitation of Warren Belasco, an American professor who wrote a nice book in 2006: Meals to come – a history of the future of food. If you have to read that subtitle twice, it's not because of your English but because of the expression 'the history of the future'. Belasco investigated how people thought about the future of our food over the past 2 years. He read ancient scientific literature that tried to predict the future, but also looked at what was shown at the world's fairs and how science fiction writers imagined the future.

3 currents in the debate
His conclusion: for 200 years there have been 3 currents in the debate. The best known is the view of the English economist Thomas Malthus, who stated in an essay in 1798 that the population is growing much faster than food production. So that famine and with it a higher risk of diseases cannot be avoided. That is a corrective mechanism of the system. In other words: unfortunately there is not room for everyone at the table. That bleak future is not so easy to solve. More production and innovation are desperately needed, but also lead to more consumption and population growth. Draconian population policy such as in China under Mao then becomes part of the discussion.

What is less well known is that Malthus's essay was in response to "speculations" put forward a few years earlier by an eminent French mathematician. That was Nicolas de Condorcet, who you usually encounter in the books under his title Marquis de Condorcet. As a philosopher of the Enlightenment, he believed that innovation in society had only just started. And that it would not be long before prosperity had solved the poverty and hunger problem. Many more people can sit at the table, because we are quite capable of serving a larger meal.

Necessity of fair society
The third strand of the debate begins with an English journalist with radical convictions, William Godwin, who pointed to the need for a fair society. He outlined an alternative to the French Revolution, in which 'fair' is an important ingredient for political justice. In the metaphor of the table, there is just enough for everyone, if we practice good table manners and gluttons hold back a little.

Belasco came to the conclusion in his study that all 3 currents can be found in the debate for 200 years. Sometimes one a little more than the other, but then the other will surface again. And that's why I dare to predict that the different perspectives can also be recognized around the UN Food Summit, from fair traders to eco-modernists.

Gain political support
In his closing words, Belasco also mentioned an interesting observation from his research: many of the future images are made to defend the current situation as well as to change the world. They are made to gain political support, to fight fears, to support investments and military adventures, and above all to sell business. It also seemed unwise to him to keep talking about 'we, the world'.

The future for some people looks very different than for others, it was the same for the past 200 years. The future is always uncertain and several roads to Rome are conceivable. For those who are preparing for the summit and for others who want to read a good book during their vacation, Warren Belasco's Meals to Come still recommended.

Krijn J. Poppe

Krijn Poppe worked for almost 40 years as an economist at LEI and Wageningen UR and now holds a number of advisory and management positions. For Boerenbusiness he dives into his bookcase and discusses current developments on the basis of studies that have become classic.

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