The Beginning of a New El Niño

The seawater is starting to warm off the coast of Peru in the Pacific Ocean. It looks like a new El Niño is starting. Along the equator (in the eastern Pacific Ocean) a strong warming of usually cool seawater occurs in the course of some years. And it affects the weather in large parts of the world, including Europe.

Normally, the water off the west coast of South America is supplied by a southerly current, which carries cold water from the Antarctic. That cold water is very rich in nutrients, which results in strong plankton and fish growth.

In a year with a El Niño however, a current occurs that carries tropical ocean water from the vicinity of Indonesia and the Philippines. In 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 the temperature was therefore 2,85 and 2,8 degrees Celsius higher respectively.

heavy rainfall
That warm water contains fewer nutrients and therefore less fish. This is an economic disaster for South American fishermen. In addition, the warmed ocean water is evaporating faster than normal, leaving the usually exceptionally dry area (in an El Niño year) ravaged by heavy rainfall. 

On the other side of the Pacific (Australia to Indonesia) the consequences are also serious. An El Niño leads to an exceptional drought, with dire consequences for the agricultural sector. The exceptionally strong El Niño of 1997/1998 also led to major forest fires in Indonesia. Local farmers have a habit of burning down patches of forest for new fields. They are quickly extinguished by the humid, tropical climate.

Drought in other areas
However, if the rains don't come in the years with an El Niño, these can develop into catastrophic conflagrations. In 1997/1998 this led to severe smog formation (for example in Singapore). In addition, the German, British and Indonesian researchers showed that ongoing forest fires at least 2,6 billion tons of CO₂ pumped into the atmosphere.

The effect of an El Niño is also great in the rest of the world; it has been calculated that the powerful El Niño of 1982/1983 caused damage of $8,2 billion worldwide. The 1997/1998 El Niño caused extreme weather events in more than 60 countries, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

Less severe winter
In total, 41 countries were affected by floods and 22 countries by drought. The damage caused by the 1997/1998 El Niño was a multiple of the amount of damage in 1982/1983. Incidentally, an El Niño also has positive effects; for example, there are fewer hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean and the winter is on average less severe in the northern United States.

In Western Europe, the effects of an El Niño are not that great. An El Niño leads to a relatively wet spring in the Netherlands, statistically speaking for the period 1870 to 2000.

Robert deVries

Robert de Vries is a weather forecaster and provides weather services to various radio and TV broadcasters: from commercial to public. He also writes for companies and a newspaper.

© DCA Market Intelligence. This market information is subject to copyright. It is not permitted to reproduce, distribute, disseminate or make the content available to third parties for compensation, in any form, without the express written permission of DCA Market Intelligence.