You'll just be a stopper now

For years there was hardly any dry bread to be made in pig farming. However, African swine fever in China has changed everything. Pig prices are setting records and the psychological limit of €2 per kilo even seems within reach. A sour moment to stop, I think.

It will take more than 1 week and then the 'R' will be in the month again; the summer of 2019 is therefore already coming to an end. The pig farmers participating in the 'stopper railing 2020' have recently entered the last fertilizer round. For them, the countdown until the New Year begins. The stables must then be empty.

Mandatory business termination is likely to cause mixed feelings. On the one hand, it can be a relief that years of toil is now coming to an end. On the other hand, quitting is often an emotional event; especially now that pig prices are sky high, it is of course tempting to continue.

Pork still loved 
Not much earlier in recent history was the market prospect as good as it is today. Pork sales to China are booming, while meat consumption in Europe is declining much more slowly than animal and environmental activists would like. Pork is still by far the most popular in many countries.

The recent price recovery is mainly due to the Chinese buying impulse. The Chinese pig herd has shrunk by about 30% in the past year (due to the outbreaks of African swine fever). This is no less than approximately 140 million pigs. To put the numbers in perspective, this is a fraction less than the total European pig population and almost twice the number of pigs in the United States.

Global market disrupted 
The global pig market has been completely disrupted. Pork is downright scarce. Images are appearing on Twitter that the Chinese are literally fighting each other to get hold of a piece of meat. These are golden times for European exporters; especially now that they have an advantage over America, which is fighting a trade war with China and Russia is not (yet) a competitor.

Dutch exporters shipped almost 65.000 tons of pork in the first half of the year, an increase of over 50% compared to the same period last year. Export figures are expected to remain good for the time being. After all, it will probably take years before the pig herd in China is back to its old level. The question is whether this China will succeed at all. This means that the sharp increase in exports is unlikely to be short-lived, despite Chinese consumers turning to beef and poultry. For them, however, this is a surrogate for the almost sacred pork.

Stop at peak
In short: pig farmers who hang up their boots at the end of 2019 do so at the peak of the market. From a social point of view, however, this is somewhat different. Animal activists are fiercer than ever, causing pig farmers to fear almost daily break-ins and even occupations. In that respect, stopping can offer a solution. 

It is not known how many companies have already signed up for the stopper scheme. According to estimates, this could be about 1.500 companies, which jointly own 10% of the Dutch pig population. Due to the good prices, the number can turn out lower. Don't be in vain complex constructions designed to continue farming. This indicates that quitting at your peak is not that easy. Because which athlete has ever managed to do that?

Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is editor-in-chief of Boerenbusiness and Food Business. He also closely follows the raw materials markets and focuses on animal proteins such as dairy and meat. He regularly interviews leaders from the agricultural sector and the food world.

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