Predict feed price? Follow wheat on the Matif

At the beginning of 2013, the price of pork chunks was well above 30 euros per tonne. In the subsequent period, the price of pork chunks was mainly in a downward trend, until the feed quotation fell to the lowest point in recent years at 22,65 euros per tonne in May last year. In recent months, feed prices have actually recovered somewhat and this is mainly due to the wheat quotation on the Matif.

The long-term trend shows that the wheat price on the Matif changed from a downward trend to an upward trend in the spring of 2016. Of course with some price fluctuations. In March 2016, wheat on the Matif was trading just above 140 euros per tonne, before rising to around 170 euros per tonne in mid-February. In the period 2013 to the spring of 2016, wheat on the Matif was mainly in a downward mood. This then paved the way for falling feed prices.

Since grains, for approximately 75 percent, form an important component of pork chunks, the Matif wheat quotation can therefore be seen as an important indicator for the feed market. The futures market for corn is also a factor determining the direction of the feed markets. Given that the trend of the Matif wheat price is still slightly upward at the beginning of 20107, the feed market will probably be forced to continue to rise for the time being. It is expected that pig chunk prices will tend to rise, at least until mid-2017. 

Downward trend

Graph 1: pork chunks (2013 – May 2016)      Chart 2: Matif wheat price (2013 – May 2016)Upward trend

Graph 1: Pork chunks (May 2016 – February 2017)Chart 2: Matif wheat price (May 2016 – February 2017)

As expected, pork prices for February are up for the third consecutive time. This definitively continues the upward trend on the feed market, after feed prices briefly fell in October last year. This decline was related to an equally short-lived downward movement on the wheat market. 

Figures from Wageningen Economic Research (WUR) show that pork chunks rose in price by 20 cents in February to 23,50 euros per 100 kilos. Zeugenbrok pregnancy is worth 35 cents and amounts to 23,10 euros. Sow pellet lakto plust by 20 cents to 27,85 euros. Starting/transition grain is worth 27,45 euros in February, which means a plus of 20 cents. A similar increase is visible for baby piglet pellets, which amount to 34,50 euros. Given the raw material prices, (slightly) increasing feed prices must be taken into account.