Inside: Pigs & Feed

Germans look surprised at our pig price

21 March 2017 - Wouter Baan

The pig market in Europe generally shows a fairly similar picture. Movements sometimes diverge between south and north, but in the Netherlands and Germany the quotations often go hand in hand. In week 12, this uniform picture was broken, because the German pig price has leveled off, while the Dutch pig price is rising. This is surprising.

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In the ISN price comparison for week 12, the German pig price moves sideways at 1,52 euros. In Spain and France the quotations increase at least to rounded 1,66 euros and 1,61 euros. A minimum plus is also visible in Belgium from one cent to 1,46. What is striking is the movement that the Dutch pork price is making by rising by 3 cents to 1,51 euros. This means that Germany and the Netherlands are on equal footing in week 12. Historically striking, considering the distance usually varies between 3 to 4 cents.

Due to tight supply, the Dutch pig market is choosing its own path

Due to this 'parity', the question arises in Germany whether German slaughterhouses in the Netherlands purchase pigs at higher prices, while in their own country this has been delayed with a Hauspreis. In week 11, when Vion Germany and Tönnies applied a Hauspreis, the pig price in the Netherlands did increase. And the Netherlands also recorded a significant plus for week 12. The Dutch market generally responds strongly to Germany, because relatively many Dutch pigs are slaughtered in German slaughterhouses. This has been less the case in recent weeks. Vion Netherlands is also rising at a steady pace in March. This to the outrage of German pig farmers.

The question is how much
The movement is not going unnoticed in the Netherlands either. However, according to insiders, it is an accurate reflection of the market, because supply in the Netherlands feels tight. The narrow bandwidth with Germany makes it easier to keep the pigs in your own country and the slaughter plans can hold up better here. 

Germany is expected to set an increase on Wednesday. Considering the internet stock market, which rose by 2 cents to 5 euros over 1,65 trading days, this gives positive forecasts. Optimists predict a plus of 5 cents, others limit themselves to more moderate forecasts. Given that German pig farmers are reacting somewhat irritated to the price increases in the Netherlands, a German price increase appears to be irreversible on Wednesday afternoon. 

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