This will be the world market for pigs

The USDA has commented on projected pork production and consumption figures in the world. The most striking: a major adjustment to pork production in China. Equal production figures in Europe and a solid plus for the US and Russia.

The USDA (the US Department of Agriculture) reports twice a year, in April and October, about the worldwide production and consumption of pork. On balance, the Ministry of Agriculture expects a production growth of 2 percent to more than 1 million tons. In terms of consumption, a minimal growth is expected to 105 million tons. This means that the relationship between supply and demand is in line with previous years.

Production in Europe will stabilize at 23,4 million tons this year. Consumption decreases by 1 percent to 20.1 million tons. There are some shifts within Europe, according to measurements by Eurostat. European exports will increase by 5 percent this year to 2.3 million tons.

Asia remains on the market
China is a heavyweight in the global market, both in production and consumption. For 2017, the USDA expects China to produce a fraction less than last year, to 52.7 million tons. The USDA has substantially revised its forecast. In October, a growth of 3 percent was expected. Consumption remains the same as last year at 54.8 million tons. Despite equal consumption and consumption, Chinese imports increase by 5 percent to 2.3 million tons.

Production in Japan, a major importer of European and American pork, is reportedly falling 1 percent to 1,27 million tons. This with constant consumption figures of 2.62 million tons. Despite this, Japanese imports are shrinking by 1 percent. On the other hand, South Korea's import needs increase by 2 percent to 630.000 tons. That means the 3 most important Asian buyers in the world market remain on the market.

(South) America increases in production
Europe can expect additional competition from America. The United States is well into pigs. That is why production increases by 5 percent to 11.8 million tons. On the other hand, there is also 2 percent more consumption, namely up to 9.6 million tons. The USDA expects a lot from US exports, as the forecast is for 8 percent growth to 2.57 million tons.  

Brazil also records growth figures. These are figures of 3 percent, increasing the growth to 3.8 million tons. That while consumption increased by 2 percent to 2.9 million tons. Brazil's exports increase by 8 percent to 900.000 tons. This trade surplus is mainly discharged into Russia. The Russians are still not self-sufficient, but they will reduce the trade deficit in 2017. Production increases by 5 percent to exactly 3 million tons. Consumption is reportedly 3 percent higher at 3.27 million tons. The import requirement is shrinking by 14 percent to 300.000 tons. 

Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is editor-in-chief of Boerenbusiness. He also focuses on dairy, pig and meat markets. He also follows (business) developments within agribusiness and interviews CEOs and policymakers.

w.baan@boerenbusiness. Nl

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