Compound feed barometer: pork chunk price continues to fall

The price of fattening pig chunks decreased by €0,15 to €23,30 per 100 kilos in September, according to figures from Wageningen Economic Research (WUR). The quotation already stood at this price level in January. This was followed by several months of increases.

The price of fattening pig chunks has been looking downwards since June 2017. The Compound feed price indicator forecasts a downward trend at least until March 2018.

Text continues below the chart.Since May, the price of fattening pig chunks has been looking down. 

The other feeders are also falling in price. The price of baby piglet pellets decreases by €0,20 to €34,30 per 100 kilos. A similar decline is visible for start/transition grain, which is trading at €27,15 over September.

The sow feeds will also be reduced by €0,20 in price. Sow chunk gestation comes out at €23 per 100 kilos. Sow chunks lakto is quoted at €27,65 per 100 kilos. The ample global stocks of wheat, maize and soy are paving the way for falling prices.

More Soy in the US 
The joint fillers are widely available, which means that prices are mainly under pressure. The International Grain Council (IGC) has increased the global forecast for soybean by 1 million tons to 348 million tons, from 351 million tons in 2016.

In the United States (US), the harvest will most likely be 2,5 million tons larger this year, bringing it to 119,5 million tons. Despite the fact that the US can refute good export figures, the soy price seems to be making little progress upwards, although the trend is rising rather than falling. Soy on the CBoT closed Friday, September 29 at $355,77 per tonne.

Text continues below the chart.The closing price of soy on the CBoT is very volatile.

Smaller corn harvest, lots of stock 
The International Grain Council has corrected the maize crop upwards by 12 million tons, to 1.029 million tons. That is lower than last year, when 1.079 million tons were harvested worldwide. However, that was a record year. The European Union is likely to harvest 58,9 million tons this year, compared to 60,5 million tons last year. The fact that the maize harvest is lower does not provide an upward price stimulus for the time being. Stocks are still bulging from previous harvest years.

The USDA estimates domestic corn stocks as of Sept. 1 at 2.295 million bushels, the largest stock since 1988. The market had been expecting even more. Since the beginning of August, the maize price on the Matif has been declining. On Friday, September 29, the listing closed at €155,50 per tonne.

The corn price is on the rise on the CBoT. This is due to the weakening dollar in that period. The CBoT closed Friday, September 29 at $139,86 per tonne, briefly trading below $130 per tonne in early September.

Text continues below the chart.Maize also shows a declining trend.

Stock tempers wheat 
Wheat prices have been mostly on the rise in recent weeks. As a result of upward revisions to US harvest forecasts, the Matif closed $1 lower on Friday at $166 per tonne.

Globally, the IGC has increased the wheat harvest by 6 million tons to 748 million tons. Wheat prices are expected to continue to trade between a range of €163 and €175 per tonne for the time being.  The price of wheat was mainly rising in the month of September.