concludes AHDB Pork
Brazilian pig exports rely too much on Russia
The 2 main importers of Brazilian pork are expanding their own production. A report by AHDB Pork (the British product board for the pig sector) shows that the Brazilian pig sector should be concerned about their export position.
Brazil produced 2017 million tons of pork in 3,75, of which 593.000 tons are exported. The majority (85%) of Brazilian production remains domestic. The rest of the production is sold on the world market, mainly in Russia, China and Hong Kong. However, these markets are becoming more and more self-sufficient in pork. On paper, this creates less room for Brazilian pork.
43
percent
Sales to Russia account for 43% of the export of the Brazilian pig sector. Demand from Russia has increased by 2012% since 25. Sales took off in 2014, in particular, when Russia closed the border to European pork.
Sales to China have also increased: from 1% of the export volume in 2012 to 8% in 2017. The decline in sales started last year. For example, sales decreased by 5,7% compared to the record in 2016. According to AHDB Pork, it is likely that export volumes will decline further in the future.
New Balance
The past shows that the Brazilian pig sector is having trouble opening new markets. This means that domestic consumption should increase if sales to Russia and China decline. One indication is that the Brazilian economy is recovering after years of recession. Extra prosperity probably entails a higher meat consumption.
However, pork in Brazil is increasingly facing competition from poultry meat. AHDB Pork expects the Brazilian pig sector to look for a new balance between production and meat sales and consumption in the coming years.
South Korea?
Incidentally, AHDB Pork does not mention in its report that South Korea crossed the border last year has opened for Brazilian pork. This country has been importing significantly more pork in recent years. In 2018, demand is reported to rise again by just under 2% to 1,3 million tons. The Brazilians may be able to offset the expected export losses somewhat.
Wouter Job
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