Inside: Pig Market

Mood on pig market completely turned around

2 February 2018 - Wouter Baan

The mood in the pig market has turned this week: from moderately positive to quite opportunistic. The key question now is whether Dutch pig prices can keep up with the sudden acceleration initiated by Germany.

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The mood on the German pork market has increased this week surprising twist taken. For example, the German pig price (the VEZG quotation) increased by €31 to €0,03 per kilo on Wednesday, January 1,33. The Internet Fair far exceeded that mark 2 days later.

This trendsetter has risen by no less than €0,05 to €1,42 per kilo, with all 12 lots sold. This is indicative of the situation currently unfolding in Germany. There is an eager demand for pigs there. If the slaughter rate were high, German slaughterhouses would have a shortage of pigs.

Slaughtering pace higher
In Germany, 1.022.384 pigs were slaughtered last week, with an average slaughter weight of 98,05 kilos. This makes the slaughter rate 6% higher than last year, and 1,5% above the 5-year average that week. The alleged tight supply is therefore not reflected in the slaughter figures.

Will German pork prices continue to rise?

The foundation of the German revival is described by some as fragile. It is therefore not a starting signal for an early spring rally, but rather a correction to excessive reductions at the beginning of this year. Nevertheless, it is suggested that a second increase will follow in Germany next Wednesday.

Enough pigs in the Netherlands
In contrast to Germany, there is significantly less of a pig shortage in the Netherlands. The 'January prop' may be getting smaller and smaller, but a wide supply is still visible on the market. That is why Dutch slaughterhouses also argue that the German increase is exaggerated. To relieve the pressure, traders who deliver to Germany take over couples from colleagues who are only active domestically.  

The wide range is reflected in the slaughter figures: In the Netherlands, 317.000 pigs (average: 98 kilos) were hanging on the hooks last week. Other years, the slaughter figure at the beginning of the year usually falls below the limit of 300.000 pigs.

Meat market not clear
There are varying voices coming from the meat market, and the different mutations somewhat contradict each other. The alleged plus for hams, shoulders and ribs is contradicted by slaughterhouses. In Denmark, Danish Crown is talking about slightly rising meat prices.

The DCA Exchange Price 2.0 plus for next week with €0,03 to €1,25 per kilo for slaughtered pigs. Anticipating a second increase in Germany would be speculation and inappropriate in view of Carnival. The price of live pigs also increases by €0,03 to €0,99 per kilo. 

DCA Scholarship Award 2.0 (week 6) Price in euros per kilo  Price range statements
Gender 1,25 (+ 0,03) 1,24 - 1,27
Levend 0,99 (+ 0,03) 0,98 - 1,00

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