Inside: Pig Market
US pig price down in one line
The pig population in the United States continues to expand, according to the USDA's March census. Compared to the census in 2017, the number of pigs has increased. What does the number come to, and what does this do to the pig price?
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Compared to the penultimate count in December the pig herd has shrunk by 1%. Still, there are enough American pigs in the pipeline for the second quarter, as the number of piglets increased by 4% to 32,3 million. The number of breeding sows has grown by 1% in 2 year to 6,2 million, of which approximately half are recorded as pregnant.
The breeding sows in the US are also becoming increasingly productive; in the past 3 months the average litter size was 10.58 piglets (+2,3%). That's a record. Nearly half (47%) of the American pig herd is owned by companies (often integrations) with more than 5.000 pigs.
How does pig price react?
The question is: how will the US pork price respond to the growing supply in the coming months? So far in 2018, the price has plummeted to a paltry $1,07 per kilo (Thursday, March 29). The caveat is that the American pork price is often under pressure in the first quarter and rises again in the second quarter.
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Since February, the American pork price has been markedly depreciated.
Meat stocks up
In addition to the pig supply, pork stocks have also increased by 8% to more than 300.000 tons (last February). The bacon supply in particular is rising again historically deep dal. The growing meat supply, combined with the increase in pigs, means that the light for a rising pork price is not (yet) green.
A possible trade war with China, with a leading role for pork, can be labeled as a disaster scenario.