This is the world market for pigs in 2018

Pork production in China shows an increase of 2% to 54,6 million tons. This is still considerably below the production level of 2014. Production in the European Union (EU) is also on the rise and is estimated at 24 million tons (+2%). This expectation is in line with the most recent pig herd count in Europe. By far the largest percentage growth (+5% to 12,2 million tons) is attributable to the United States (US). This is logical, given that the pig population is expanding considerably there.

Brazil is the only country in the top 5 where production is not increasing; the USDA estimates a 1% contraction to 3,67 million tons. Russia, the last in the top 5, recorded a plus of 3% to 2,8 million tons. The world's total pork production is reported to increase by 2% to 107,9 million tons.

Consumption absorbs production
Against the growing production, there is an improving consumption. Worldwide, pork consumption is rising by 2% to 106 million tons. China will still be a net importer in 2018, as consumption (+2% to 55,9 million tons) exceeds production.

Consumption in the EU also increases by 2% to 21,2 million tonnes. Countries in Eastern Europe in particular are driving this growth. The US will consume 2018% more to 4 million tons of pork in 9,9, according to the USDA. This means that US exporters will have a more prominent presence on the global market.

Consumption in Russia will decrease slightly in 2018 (-2% to 3 million tons). Brazilians, on the other hand, consume 4% more to 9,4 million tons. The driving force behind growing consumption is the recovering global economy. 

Major import differences
De Chinese imports will fall by 2018% in 6 to 1,62 million tons. Japan imports just 2% more to 1,5 million tons. This is positive for European exporters, because the import tariffs will expire from 2019. Mexico is also attracting significantly more volumes; Mexican imports increase by 11% to 1,2 million tons. The US swine industry is likely to benefit from this. And European exporters may also benefit, given that the EU very recently concluded a trade agreement with Mexico. The deal includes that European pork can be shipped there.

Although consumption in South Korea is increasing, imports remain stable at 645.000 tons. This is because South Korean pig production is increasing. Unlike China imports Hong Kong just more; the USDA estimates volumes at 500.000 tons (+8%). This is positive news for European exporters, as Hong Kong is a market that should not be underestimated. Another important country is the Philippines. This Asian country is attracting more and more volumes; in 2018, the USDA expects no less than 18% growth to 285.000 tons.

European export volume rising
In terms of exports, the EU sells the largest volumes; in 2018, the USDA expects an increase of 2% to 2,9 million tons. The US shipped 5% more to 2,67 million tons. Especially in Mexico, American exporters can lose extra volume. Canada is the third largest exporter with 1,35 million tons (+2%). The fourth major export player is Brazil. However, this country loses no less than 20% sales up to 625.000 tons. This is due to the Russian boycott on Brazilian pork. Part of this loss can be deposited in China. 

Table: 2018 USDA forecast (volumes x.1000 tons):