Inside Pigs

Chance of higher pig price increases

June 22, 2018 - Wouter Baan - 5 comments

There is a shortage of supply on the pig market. Whether this is enough to stimulate pig prices remains to be seen in the short term. In any case, the DCA Stock Price 2.0 is not yet pre-selecting a possible increase.

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The quotations on the pig market were almost all at the same level this week; with the exception of the Internet fair, which increased by €19 to €0,01 per kilo on Tuesday, June 1,52. This price level was maintained on the second trading day of this week (Friday, June 22).

It indicates that the indicator is cautiously increasing pressure on the German pig market. The distance with the German pig price (the VEZG quotation) has now been stretched to €0,08, which falls under the heading 'large'. 

The hope is based on a tight supply 

Tight offer
The pig supply in Northwestern Europe is far from ample. Almost everyone (both slaughterers and traders) talks about a normal to tight supply. In Germany, pigs are really starting to become scarce in some places; in the Netherlands there are proportionately more. The hope for higher pig prices in the market is therefore mainly based on supply.

The situation on the meat market shows little improvement, although the demand for BBQ parts may increase again from next week. The predicted Temperatures can further reduce the pig supply due to the slowdown in growth that then occurs. At the same time, there are rumors that slaughterhouses will slaughter less, because the margins are quite poor or even negative. In the market, some are betting on an increase, while others are more cautious. It can be said that somewhere another increase is in the air. This has been different in recent weeks.

Not enough support
However, there is not yet enough support for a higher stock exchange price. That is why the DCA Exchange Price 2.0 remains at €1,38 per kilo for slaughtered pigs, while the price of live pigs remains at €1,10 per kilo.

DCA Scholarship 2.0 (week 26) Price range Number of problems  Average
Gender €1,38 (approx.) per kilo € 1,38 - € 1,40 17 €1,385
Live €1,10 (approx.) per kilo € 1,10 - € 1,12 15 €1,107
Explanation DCA Markets: The pig market is shaking to its foundations. Better than the cards are now, it seems almost impossible to increase the price of the pigs. Traders have been advocating for this for a number of weeks, but the circumstances are not favorable for the market. Slaughterhouses indicate that they slaughter in the red and do not intend to accept higher prices. Reducing capacity may be a logical response. An increase would have a negative effect on stability rather than help the market. No matter how much sympathy there is for the difficult circumstances that pig farmers in particular have to deal with, an increase is not an option. Pig farmers are also in opposition in Germany and Spain to achieve an increase in pig prices. This week this was not followed up in Germany. The coming week will show whether an increase can actually take shape.

 

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