Inside Pigs
Big chance that pig price will rise further
Pig prices in northwestern Europe started to rise in mid-August, the end of which is not yet in sight. In southern European countries (such as Spain and France) there is no room for increases. In the United States (US), a downward trend is visible and we can speak of a crisis.
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In the ISN price comparison, the largest increase (+€0,08 to €1,436 per kilo) is for Germany. The Netherlands follows with an increase from €0,07 to €1,371 per kilo. The pluses in neighboring countries such as Belgium and Denmark (both recorded +€0,03) are somewhat more moderate. In Denmark, the pig price is having difficulty keeping up, which is clearly reflected in the DCA Pig Index.
There is currently no room for this in Spain and France higher rankings. Supply and demand have been in balance there for weeks, which means that prices remain largely stable.
Will increase continue?
There is a real chance that the recovery on the German pig market will continue. The Internet Exchange rose on Tuesday, August 14, by €0,01 to €1,61 per kilo. This means that the difference with the German pig price (the VEZG quotation) has been stretched to €0,12 per kilo. On this basis, the German pig price is expected to rise sharply again. However, it remains uncertain whether the slaughterhouses can and want to keep up with this pace. If that is the case, the Netherlands can also prepare for a further increase.
Major price drop in US
In the US, pork prices are falling to historically low levels. The Iowa/Minnesota quotation is currently (August 13) $0,96 per kilo, while 2 months ago it was still above $1,80 per kilo. Never before has the price been at such low levels at this time of year.
The pressure on prices is mainly due to tensions surrounding the trade war; this sets the export volumes under pressure. There is a wide range on offer. There are currently no signals that the Chinese and Mexican import duties on American pork will be withdrawn. As compensation for the damage suffered, the White House has about $12 billion made available.
From a competitive perspective, developments in the US are a concern. While European exporters in China may be able to take advantage of the situation, there are rumors that US exporters are looking to ship additional volumes to countries such as the Philippines and South Korea. This, in combination with the low price, makes the US a formidable competitor. 
Since mid-June, the US pork price has fallen sharply.