Inside Pigs

Piglet market ripe for an increase, isn't it?

20 August 2018 - Wouter Baan

After a few difficult weeks, there is hope again in the piglet market. The demand for piglets is gradually increasing, which means that the DCA BestPigletPrice (BPP) is a minimal plus. How's the mood?

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The rapid revival of the pig price the piglet trade is doing well. This means that fattening pig farmers have more confidence and inquire about piglets more often. The realization that piglet prices will not fall further has now dawned. There is no point in waiting before imposing.

Trend report?
It is also clear in Germany that the North/West piglet price will not decrease. In fact, the trend report for this week indicates an increase of €2. This would bring the quotation to €37 per piglet. The opinions per trader vary somewhat. While one person reports that sales are running more smoothly, the other sees no improvement. That is why the German trend report is labeled by some as 'too ambitious'.

What will be the effect of the summer heat?

It is quite possible that piglet prices will be supported this fall by a tighter supply. By the heat the impression is that the breeding sows in some places have had to deal with fertility problems. This would result in a relatively large number of returnees. This offers starting points for higher piglet prices. Whether this actually has a significant effect on supply remains to be seen. The theory can also be used as an easy argument to make a vote.

All in all, the mood on the piglet market is slowly improving. Prices are also on the rise in neighboring countries, such as Belgium and Denmark. The DCA BPP responds to this and increases by €0,50 to €28,50 per piglet. It must be said that this increase is directly related to the rising pork price.

Vion pig price rises 
When it turns out at the end of August that pig prices are leaning on quicksand, the piglet trade will be irrevocably affected. However, there are no signs of this for the time being, because Vion's pork price is rising this week by €0,04 to €1,52 per kilo.

The slaughterhouse says that it is noticeable that the end of the holidays is approaching. The meat processing industry is slowly restarting and supply and average slaughter weight are increasing. According to Vion, this, in combination with the fluctuating prices, means that there is an imbalance in the sales markets.

DCA BestPigletPrice (week 34) Price range Number of problems  Average
€28,50 (+0,50) € 28,00 - € 30,00 19 €28,421
Explanation DCA Markets:
To increase or not to increase, that is the question. The increase in pig quotations in recent weeks (total €0,14) should allow an increase in piglet quotations. Yet this does not seem to have been achieved easily. One trader reports little purchasing interest and says he has piglets left over, while another reports good demand that exceeds his own supply. In addition, the expectation of the change in the German piglet price is experienced as strong and insiders indicate that this is based on the increase in the pig price and not on trade.

The traders' statements this week show a small plus of €0,50. The increase should therefore be seen more as a gesture. What also plays a role is how long the increase in pork prices can be sustained. Insights also differ in this regard, and the developments of African swine fever in China could play a major role.

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