US pig price is on the rise

The number of pigs has increased by 1% in one year to a record 3 million head, according to the September census of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Almost all categories record growth of approximately 75,5%.

The breeding sow population grew by 3% to 6,33 million and the number of piglets grew by 3% to 34,2 million (half of which are pregnant). The number of live born piglets per litter is still increasing. Between June and September noted this figure has an average of 10,72 per throw, a record. Compared to the same period last year, this is an increase of 0,7.

Pig price is recovering
The American pork price has been on a strong rise since the end of August. For example, at the end of August the Iowa/Minnesota quotation was still at a level of $0,81 per kilo (it has not been this low since 2005). The price has since risen by $0,59 to $1,40 per kilo.

This increase is in line with the seasonal pattern of the pig price. The quotation usually starts to decline in mid-October. This is also the expectation of market analyst Len Steiner, chairman of the Steiner Consulting Group. He expects the pig price in the last quarter slumps to approximately $1,20 per kilo.

Steiner is positive about market developments for 2019, because he expects exports to pick up. This year the American sector will export 22,3% of production. Steiner assumes that this share will rise to 2019% in 22,8. According to the market analyst, this could provide support to the pig price.

Forecast 2019
Steiner expects pig prices in 2019 to be more than 10% higher than in 2018, provided domestic demand remains good. The statement is somewhat striking, because the US is involved in a trade war with China.