Pig farming is on the eve of depopulation

Many pig farmers in the Netherlands are faced with an important choice: stop, consolidate or expand. Rabobank believes that the majority of entrepreneurs are throwing in the towel, as a result of which the number of pig farmers will have shrunk from 2030 to approximately 3.500 by 1.000.

The bank describes the expectation in the 'Pig Study 2018: Dutch Pig Farming of the Future'. The bank foresees many stoppers in the coming 5 years in particular. The reason is the tightened laws and regulations in the province of Noord-Brabant and the stoppage scheme in 2020. In addition, 66% of pig farmers are over 50 and they often have no successor.

The pig population is also likely to shrink, as a result of the 'warm remediation of pig farming'. The bank expects the government to take 5% of the available pig rights off the market.

Closing the social gap
According to the bank, the entrepreneurs who continue will face an important challenge: closing the gap with society. For example, solutions must be found for odor nuisance, particulate matter emissions and the manure surplus. The strict regulations also have advantages. For example, modern production systems have technically helped pig farming to become a world leader.

Rabobank therefore provides the raison d'être for those who stay. According to the bank, the pig is the 'ultimate' recycled animal, which is able to convert residual flows into high-quality proteins. The manure can increase soil fertility in the Netherlands. These aspects connect seamlessly with the Agricultural vision by Carola Schouten, Minister of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality.

Flexible entrepreneurs wanted
More flexibility will be required from pig farmers in the future. Chain cooperation and social transparency are also becoming increasingly important. In addition, pig farmers must keep pace in order to achieve the climate targets.

Finally, having a financial buffer is a requirement. In doing so, the bank seems to indicate that the 'pig cycle' will continue to apply in the coming years.

The 2018 pig analysis contains an interview with Koen van Bergen, sector specialist at Rabobank. In it, Van Bergen discusses this subject in more detail. Click here to become a subscriber and receive the magazine.

Wouter Job

Wouter Baan is editor-in-chief of Boerenbusiness. He also focuses on dairy, pig and meat markets. He also follows (business) developments within agribusiness and interviews CEOs and policymakers.

w.baan@boerenbusiness. Nl

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