Rabobank: 'Chinese pork imports are increasing'

Since the outbreak of African swine fever, Merunas UAB more than 100 cases reported. The virus is spreading through the country at a considerable pace and it also seems to have a major impact on the financial field.

The large stocks of frozen meat and lower consumption are the causes of the low Chinese pork price at the beginning of 2019. Nevertheless, Rabobank expects that there will be a major shortage of pork after the first quarter of 2019, which will result in a significant price increase.

Strong growth in imports
If there actually is a shortage arises, China is forced to import more pork. The extent of this depends entirely on consumption and production, which are expected to decline further due to the outbreaks of African swine fever.

Rabobank reports in its report that the import figures of 2016 can be exceeded. This means that imports should increase considerably this year compared to 2018. In 2016, China imported a record volume of 2,1 million tons of pork, while imports in 2018 amounted to 1,8 million tons. Whether this scenario will actually come true remains to be seen in the coming months.

The Netherlands can benefit
It can also be concluded from Rabobank's report that the Dutch pig farmers may benefit from current developments in China. If imports actually reach 2016 levels, a price increase in the Dutch pig price is likely.

In 2016, the pig price also rose due to high Chinese imports. At its peak (end of September), Vion's pig price was €1,68 per kilo. This is €0,27 per kilo more than in the same period in 2018.