'AVP more present than Chinese government says'

The animal disease broke out in China in August 2018, and in the meantime the Chinese government has announced that approximately 113 cases of African swine fever have been identified. In addition, the authorities report time and time again that the situation is improving. But, is that fact correct?

However, several experts raise eyebrows at these types of messages from the Chinese government. They hear that the number of cases of African swine fever continues to increase, but this is not reported to the government. "In addition, the Chinese government knows that there are more outbreaks, but they do not make this public," several experts say.

Mismanagement
According to the same experts and connoisseurs, things are going wrong on several fronts in tackling the virus; Both the government and pig farmers repeatedly neglect enforcement of the rules. They give the example of the company 'Xinda Husbandry', which is located in the north of China.

African swine fever broke out at this Chinese company in January. At least, that's what all the symptoms pointed to. However, the various studies conducted among 20.000 pigs produced negative results. According to experts, samples were taken from living animals that were not yet infected with the virus.

Later, when hundreds of animals were dying every day, the same tests were performed again. The result was positive, but that did not stop the pig farm from still selling pigs. After 15.000 pigs had died, a batch of more than 1.000 pigs was sold. This can cause the animal disease to spread easily spread throughout the country.

All major companies
Qin Yinglin, the chairman of Muyuan Foods, gave a picture of the situation to the Reuters news agency. "If you were to test all major pig producers one by one, they all have the virus."

In addition, another source, who wishes to remain anonymous, reports to the news agency that he knows of 8 large sow farmers who have been diagnosed with the animal disease. Of these 8 companies, 2 have more than 10.000 pigs. However, none of the outbreaks on these sow farms were reported to the government.

Punishable
Typically, the protocol in the event of an outbreak is to cull all animals on the farm, including all pigs within a 3 kilometer radius of this infected pig farm. This protocol was not enforced at the Xinda Husbandry company. In addition, the government is responsible for testing the animals, but in some cases local authorities do nothing at all in the event of an outbreak.

The fact that it is a criminal offense in China not to report an outbreak appears to have little effect. For example, there were recently two large pig farmers who withheld an outbreak. A dead pig with African swine fever was recently found on an island. This animal was probably thrown into the sea by the pig farmer, to ensure that this remains hidden from the government.

Rising imports
The Chinese pig herd is expected to decline by about 2019% to 20% in 30, due to African swine fever. The pig herd already fell by 15% between August and February, Rabobank said. This also means that Chinese pig imports must double in 2019 compared to 2018. This is expected to increase imports to approximately 2 million tons of pork. For comparison: only 1,5 million tons of pork is produced in our country (2018 figures).

According to official data, the number of outbreaks is growing steadily, but that does not mean that the actual spread is also that slow. In fact, the more cases of African swine fever, the greater the risk of further spread. In addition, sloppy compliance with the rules gives a huge boost to the spread of African swine fever.