USDA: 'Global pig trade is picking up'

The USDA says global pork production will decline by 2019% in 4,2, mainly driven by outbreaks of African swine fever in China. As a result, the largest pig country in the world will probably experience a significant decrease in pork production (-10%). Also Rabobank expects production in this country to decrease significantly.

On the other hand, the USDA expects pork production to increase in the United States (+4%) and Brazil (+6%). Stable production is expected in the European Union. Due to low pig prices, the number of sows decreased in 2018 and early 2019, which could cause a decline. However, due to the increased pig prices (due to high Chinese imports), the USDA expects an increase in production later this year. This keeps net production in balance.

Higher import figures
Global pork exports are expected to increase by 8%. This is mainly due to a major pig shortage in China, but this is also driven by positive economic growth in many major pig markets. According to the USDA, the European Union will remain the largest exporter of pork in 2019 and the continent will see its exports grow by 11%.

In addition, the USDA writes that China must import significant quantities of pork. That country's pork imports are expected to grow by no less than 2019% in 41. Japan is also expected to see an increase in pork imports (+3%), bringing the import figure to 1,53 million tons.

Import tariffs?
Finally, the USDA expects US pork exports to increase by 2019% in 5, largely due to imports from China. This is striking, given that the country applies import tariffs on American pork. Pork exports to Mexico, the largest buyer of American pork, will not increase much in 2019. This is because import duties also apply there.