News Pigs
Rabobank expects more pigs in Europe
The outbreaks of African swine fever in China are shaking up the pig market, Rabobank reports in its new quarterly update. The bank expects that rising prices will motivate pig farmers to increase production.
Rabobank's pig update looks back at the first 4 months of 2019. After pig prices moved to a relatively low level in the first quarter, a strong price rally started at the end of March. This is due to an increase in demand from China. As a result, the pig prices sometimes by as much as € 0,10 per kilo per week.
Rabobank already announced in an earlier publication that it expects the Chinese pig production will decrease by 25% to 35% (-13 million tons of pork). According to the bank, this decrease cannot be compensated in the short term by importing pork from other countries. This means that there are shortages.
European production on the rise
Rabobank analysts, on the other hand, expect the European pig population to grow rapidly. In 2016, which was also a year with high prices, the pig herd increased by 2,1%. Such figures are also possible in this year. Not only in Europe, but also in Brazil, Canada and the United States, pig farmers are increasing production as a result of the Chinese pig shortage.
Despite the optimism in the market, Rabobank reports that it is necessary to guard against too much euphoria. In Europe, for example, African swine fever is also prevalent, including in Belgium. As a result, an outbreak in the Netherlands or Germany is looming.
Tim Roetman
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