The number of hectares for Brazilian soy production has collapsed 10 times in the past 3 years. Deforestation for soy production is decreasing, but continues. The criticism of this is taken seriously, but that does not apply to the European call for non-GMO produced soy as a raw material for VLOG feed.
Brazil has 284 million hectares of agricultural land. This year soy was grown on 35 million hectares, while 11 years ago this was still on 'only' 11 million hectares. "The growth in acreage and productivity will continue", Alexander Hornemann expects. He is a commercial agricultural advisor at the Danish consulate in São Paulo, and sees that the production of the various agricultural activities is expanding further to the north of Brazil.
"It was not so long ago that clearing the rainforest for agricultural crops was promoted. That attitude has changed a lot, despite the attitude of the new president. However, people must also want to change. Many small farmers who run a business in the Amazon region see no other option than to expand their agricultural activities, and there is no other form of employment in many parts of Brazil either."
Superpower in production
Brazil is already a superpower in many agricultural areas. For example, 67% of the orange production comes from Brazil. This is 53% for coffee production, 9% for maize and 32% for soya. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) predicts a 2026% growth in maize production and a 441% increase in soybean production by 70. A lot of growth is also expected in pork (259%) and beef (34%). "A few people express the hope that this growth can be achieved on the same acreage as it is now. However, that is an illusion," says Hornemann.
One of the biggest challenges to be able to realize the growth and to properly regulate the processing, is the infrastructure. It is much less good in large parts of Brazil than in the United States or Europe. The vast majority of soy and maize is transported from the interior by means of trucks. It is also known that the soy traders calculate a loss of more than 10% in the transport; the bouncing of the trucks spills a lot of soybeans and regularly causes accidents.
Growth takes time and money
Soybean production was at a record level of 116 million tons last year. "Due to increased acreage and better management, this production is growing by about 5% per year," said Santiago de Stefano, director of the 'Brazil' business unit of GDM Seeds. He explains that soy production is being expanded by converting unprofitable grassland plots. "Our estimate is that there are at least 50 million hectares of such land available. If demand continues to grow, soy production here will also continue to grow."
The breeder itself markets about 60% of its seeds as non-GMO. In practice, however, only a few percent of growers use non-GMO. "As a breeding company, we want to keep the rights to the seeds that we develop and market. This is not possible completely with a GMO treatment. That is why we focus on non-GMO. This does not apply to growers. GMO really helps to get the soy faster. grow and make a second crop per year more suitable. The yield is also lower with non-GMO. Growers who sow and harvest the non-GMO soy do receive a premium. However, this is often not sufficient to cover the extra costs and cover lesser returns."
Profit from trade war
Soy prices from the United States entered a free fall in April 2018, mainly due to US President Donald Trump's trade dispute with China. The effects on the market in Brazil were much smaller. "Until last autumn, the Brazilians even benefited quite a bit from this situation, because they received relatively high prices for the soybeans," says De Stefano.
Jônadan Hsuan Min Ma is the chairman of the association 'No Tillage'. Like in many other parts of Brazil, Jônadan Ma can plant and sow all year round. He harvests 2 crops per year. Every summer he grows soybeans on 1.350 of the 1.500 hectares. He uses the other 150 hectares for silage maize. Soybean sowing takes place from October 15 to November 30, after which the harvest runs from early February to the second half of March. Ranging from early or late varieties, his soy needs 100 to 130 growing days. After the harvest, 250 hectares of maize are harvested for grain, 800 hectares of sorghum and 450 hectares are used for green manure.
Of the 1.350 hectares of soybeans, 570 hectares are non-GMO, the rest is GMO soy. The yield of the GMO fields is 3,6 to 4,2 tons per hectare. For non-GMO this is between 3,3 and 3,6 tons. Converted, the additional cost is around €100 per tonne, while this was €3 130 years ago. "I feel good growing non-GMO, but every year I have to ask myself whether it is still possible. With a plus of € 130 it is possible, but less is not enough for the reduced yield. "
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