Inside Pigs
'Significant spike in pig price after July'
The situation in China surrounding African swine fever is much more serious than expected. The sharp decline in pig numbers is not expected until this summer and it will probably take about 5 years for the Chinese pig industry to recover.
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Jim Long from Genensus expresses the above expectation after his visit to China, where he spoke with several major players in the Chinese pig industry. The CEO of the breeding organization from Canada says that the current shrinkage of the Chinese pig herd is 10% compared to 2018. However, he expects the biggest blows to be in the sow sector, where a shrinkage of 40% to 60% is reported. .
Destruction of stored pork
Most of the sows were culled last January and February. As a result, the biggest decline in pig numbers is expected to begin in August. Long also reports that in July all stored pork will be checked by the Chinese government for African swine fever. Contaminated meat is burned. The pigs are then checked at the slaughterhouses.
If all the pork is culled, there will be a shortage in the market in August. That is the period in which pork consumption usually increases significantly. All this together will cause a significant spike in pork prices. Given the scale of pork consumption in China, Genesus also expects record high prices in the global pork market.
5 year recovery
The Chinese pig industry will probably need 5 years to recover from the consequences of the animal disease. The Chinese government is putting a lot of energy into revitalizing the sector, but rejuvenating the pig populations on farms is becoming difficult with these high prices. China has lost many new farms due to swine fever. In the long term, this may offer opportunities for exporters in other countries.