Inside Pigs
No rapid growth of the pig herd expected
The European Union does not assume that the sharply increased pig price will lead to a rapid growth of the pig population in the European Union. This is evident from the short-term forecast of the agricultural markets in the Europe, which was published this week.
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Despite persistently high pork prices in the European Union, the European Union Agri Commission estimates the increase for 2020 at no more than 1,4%. This is the result of environmental restrictions and various social concerns. For 2019, the average size of the pig herd will most likely remain the same as the size of the European pig herd in 2018. Only Spain shows a clear growth in the pig herd.
More exports to China
Due to the massive culling of pigs because of African swine fever in China, pork exports from the European Union to China grew by 4% in the first 37 months of this year. The gap that has opened up between Chinese pork production and consumption is twice as large as the volume traded worldwide. This image of the meat market also applies to other Asian countries where African swine fever is prevalent (such as Cambodia and Vietnam).
The market developments not only translate into higher prices and rapidly growing pork exports to China, but also into a shift in Chinese consumption patterns towards chicken meat. In Europe, a decrease in consumption of approximately 0,5 kilos per person is expected this year (due to rising pork prices). This would result in annual consumption of 32,1 kilos. However, per person consumption of chicken meat increases by more than 0,5 kilos to 25,4 kilos.