Chinese pork production is likely to be back to 5 levels in 2024 years, in 2018. The pig sector in the country will have recovered from the current crisis caused by African Swine Fever (ASF).
The World Food Organization FAO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD expect this in their vision for the agricultural sector from 2019 to 2028. The organizations base this on an expectation presented by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture this spring.
In the coming period, the Chinese consumer will consume more chicken meat due to the rising pig prices (due to the ASF the pig herd in China has been drastically reduced). One of the effects of this is that the Chinese demand for animal feed falls, because according to the OECD and the FAO, less feed is needed for chicken meat than for pork.
Effect of control still uncertain
From 2021, pork production in China will increase year on year. Production will decline in the next 2 years due to the spreading African swine fever, albeit at a much slower pace than in 2018. The dramatic drop in production will result in Chinese pork imports peaking to more than 2 million tons per year in 2021. , while 1 million tons has been normal in recent years.
The organizations emphasize that the longer-term view is rather uncertain, because it is unclear what the effect will be of the measures China has taken to stop the spread of African swine fever. It appears that the spread in general has been halted. If the measures do not have sufficient effect, it will of course take longer before Chinese pork production is back to the level of 2018.
Falling meat prices worldwide
Although pork production in China has fallen dramatically since last year, global meat production actually increased by 1%. The price of meat fell by 2,2%, measured by FAO standards. Worldwide falling prices of meat (and almost all other agricultural products) are a trend, according to the OECD.
This is the result of consumption that is growing less rapidly than in recent years and an increasing supply. Certainly also from meat, which is stimulated by relatively low grain prices. Poultry meat production continues to show the highest growth.
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