Analysis Countus Pig Index
How far does the yield of the sow farmer drop?
The return of sow farmers is on its way to a level that is below average, as the Countus Piglet Index shows. However, the bottom seems to be in sight. In contrast, the Countus Fattening Pig Index has resumed its upward trend after a short dip.
De Countus Piglet Index has fallen by approximately 4 points in the past 35 weeks to 112,4 points, with 100 points being the long-term average. The negative sentiment was also clearly visible in the DCA BestPigletPrice in recent weeks, as it fell for 7 weeks in a row. on Monday August 5 the listing has found a bottom, which could mean that the outlook could become more positive again.
However, this is not immediately apparent from the forecast of the Piglet Index, because it indicates that the decline will continue for the time being. It is difficult to find a clear cause for the expected decline, as is also apparent from the differing opinions about the market. One argues for stability, the other thinks that prices are still too high, which is mainly due to the fact that there has been little demand for piglets for weeks. Manure disposal costs and feed prices have been stable for several weeks and therefore seem to have little influence on the prognosis.
Incidentally, the bottom seems to be in sight, although to reach that level the Index must fall through the limit of the long-term average. Subsequently, a slight improvement in returns could be visible from week 36 onwards.
Fattening pig index is recovering
On the other hand, the situation with fattening pig farmers has been very different for weeks. The Countus Fattening Pig Index showed a small decrease last week (from 152,9 points to 137,6 points), but has now resumed its upward trend. At the moment, the Index stands at 155,2 points, where it was 136,2 points at the beginning of July.
It can also be concluded from the prognosis of the Fattening Pigs Index that this increase has not yet come to an end. This is mainly due to the tight supply, although the falling feed costs also play a major role in the whole. The price of fattening pig chunks fell to €24,65 per 100 kilos at the beginning of July. The Countus Fattening Pigs Index is expected to rise to approximately 10 points in the next 185 weeks, although the chance of a sharp drop does increase after that.
Kimberly Baker
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