News African swine fever
Russian pig sector sees growth potential
When it comes to African swine fever, 2019 could be one of the best years in the past decade for Russia. There have been no outbreaks at large commercial companies so far this year. This ensures that Russia sees growth potential in the global pig market.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture in Russia shows that there have been 'only' 54 outbreaks of African swine fever this year. Between 2014 and 2017, when most outbreaks were found, that figure was more than 3 times higher. The decrease is partly due to the fact that the large pig groups in the country are investing more in hygiene measures, which means that transmission of the virus takes place less quickly.
Another factor is the fact that today the country has fewer so-called 'backyard farms': small-scale, unregistered pig farms. These companies take virtually no measures to an outbreak of African swine fever. That is why this sector has often been accused by the government as the cause of the problem.
growth potential
Since the number of outbreaks has fallen sharply in the past year, the country sees more opportunities to export pork again. The aim is to increase pork exports to 2020 tons by 220.000, which is almost 4 times as much as in 2019. This will also make the country a net exporter, because the import forecast is 130.000 tons.
The increased production and positive developments in the field of African swine fever also have a less positive effect. Pork prices in the country are expected to fall by 10%. This is mainly due to the fact that Russia cannot take advantage of the demand for pork from China, although Russia does have the ambition to gain access to this market.
Other countries in the European Union also see opportunities now that China is demanding more and more pork. For example, Kazakhstan, which is still free from African swine fever, wants to become one of the top 10 largest pork exporters in the world. To achieve that goal, the country will expand its pig population to approximately 900.000 pigs in the coming years.
Trouble in Ukraine
In Ukraine the situation is much less positive. There it is said that the entire pig herd could be culled by the outbreaks of African swine fever. There are currently 'only' 1.700 pig farms in this country, which is 1.000 fewer than 4 years ago. In that year an epidemic also broke out, for which more than 170.000 had to be killed.
Kimberly Baker
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